Which European stocks have historically rallied in January?

January kicks off the trading year with a mix of anticipation and repositioning in financial markets.

While European equity indexes often tread water during this month, a select group of stocks has a history of delivering standout gains, making January a compelling period for spotting seasonal winners.

A modest start for European indices with some recent standouts

 Data from Seasonax, a platform that analyses seasonal patterns in equities, reveals that January has delivered muted results for European stock benchmarks over the past decades.

The Euro STOXX 50, a widely followed benchmark of blue-chip eurozone equities, posted an average return of just 0.1% in January, with a 54% winning ratio.

The index ended the month in positive territory 20 times and in the red 17 times.

Yet, the Euro STOXX 50 has also shown renewed January strength, ending the last two Januarys firmly in the green. The index climbed 3% in January 2024 and an eye-popping 8% in January 2023, with the latter marking the second-strongest January performance on record, surpassed only by January 1997.

Over the past 44 years, the DAX – Germany’s flagship stock index – has delivered an average January return of -0.06%, closing in the green 24 times and in the red 20 times.

However, recent years have painted a brighter picture. In January 2024, the DAX rose by 0.8%, while a stellar 7.5% rally in January 2023 marked one of its best starts to the year,

Similarly, the broader Euro STOXX 600—which offers a wider representation of the European equity market—has recorded an average January gain of 0.1%, with a slightly lower winning ratio of 52%.

Yet, like the DAX and Euro STOXX 50, the STOXX 600 has shown signs of renewed strength in recent years, rallying by 6.7% in January 2023 and delivering a more modest 1.4% gain in January 2024.

Euro STOXX 500’s January winners

Among the components of the Euro STOXX 50, several stocks stand out for their consistent January rallies.

These top performers, as highlighted by data from Seasonax, demonstrate strong average returns, high median performance, and notable individual gains over the years.

Here’s a closer look:

1.    Vinci SA

o   Average Return: +2.92%

o   Median Return: +3.35%

o   Maximum Profit: +12.81%

o   Maximum Loss: -14.53%

o   Winning Trades: 75% (15 out of 20) The French construction and infrastructure giant has been a standout performer, with an average return of nearly 3% and a robust median performance of 3.35%.

2.    Deutsche Börse AG

o   Average Return: +2.24%

o   Median Return: +6.23%

o   Maximum Profit: +20.16%

o   Maximum Loss: -31.53%

o   Winning Trades: 75% (15 out of 20) The German stock exchange operator boasts a solid average January gain of 2.24%, with a much stronger median return of 6.23%, reflecting its ability to post significant gains in its best years. Yet, its worst performance saw a steep loss of -31.53%, emphasising the stock’s occasional volatility.

3.    SAP SE

o   Average Return: +1.50%

o   Median Return: +1.80%

o   Maximum Profit: +18.36%

o   Maximum Loss: -12.03%

o   Winning Trades: 75% (15 out of 20) Europe’s largest software company has delivered steady, though more modest, January results. Its average return of 1.5% and median gain of 1.8% reflect a reliable performance, with a notable best-year gain of 18.36%.

4.    Airbus SE

o   Average Return: +2.50%

o   Median Return: +1.15%

o   Maximum Profit: +23.41%

o   Maximum Loss: -19.89%

o   Winning Trades: 60% (12 out of 20) The European aerospace giant has been more variable in its January outcomes. While its average return of 2.5% is strong, its median performance of just 1.15% points to less consistency as it notched only 12 positive trades in 20 years.

5.    Kering SA

o   Average Return: +1.27%

o   Median Return: +1.99%

o   Maximum Profit: +17.58%

o   Maximum Loss: -21.31%

o   Winning Trades: 60% (12 out of 20) The French luxury conglomerate has seen more modest January results compared to others on this list. Its average return of 1.27% is complemented by a higher median return of 1.99%, with occasional strong rallies, such as its 17.58% gain in the best-performing January.

Euro STOXX 600’s January winners

Zooming out to the Euro STOXX 600, which covers mid- and small-cap stocks, reveals even more striking performances, with some stocks posting exceptional average and median returns:

1.    JD Sports Fashion plc

o   Average Return: +8.06%

o   Median Return: +9.01%

o   Maximum Profit: +39.94%

o   Maximum Loss: -27.31%

o   Winning Ratio: 80% (16 out of 20) The UK-based sportswear retailer is a clear standout, boasting an impressive average return of 8.06% and a median return of 9.01%, indicating a consistent ability to deliver strong January gains. Its best year saw a rally of nearly 40%, though its worst loss of -27.31%.

2.    Sopra Steria Group

o   Average Return: +6.87%

o   Median Return: +7.14%

o   Maximum Profit: +24.38%

o   Maximum Loss: -14.03%

o   Winning Ratio: 90% (18 out of 20) The French IT services firm has one of the highest winning ratios in the Euro STOXX 600, with gains in 90% of the Januarys analysed. Its average and median returns are similarly strong, making it a favourite among investors watching seasonal trends.

3.    Rheinmetall AG

o   Average Return: +6.38%

o   Median Return: +6.20%

o   Maximum Profit: +17.81%

o   Maximum Loss: -5.08%

o   Winning Ratio: 90% (18 out of 20) The German defence contractor combines high consistency with limited downside risk, as evidenced by its worst January loss of just -5.08%. Its average return was 6.38% with a 90% of positive trades.

4.    Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A.

o   Average Return: +6.35%

o   Median Return: +8.39%

o   Maximum Profit: +21.02%

o   Maximum Loss: -18.97%

o   Winning Ratio: 85% (17 out of 20) The French life sciences company has consistently benefited from strong demand for its bioprocessing technologies, delivering robust January returns. Its median return of 8.39% is particularly strong, though investors should note its potential for sharp declines.

5.    CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA

o   Average Return: +4.12%

o   Median Return: +4.46%

o   Maximum Profit: +16.51%

o   Maximum Loss: -7.20%

o   Winning Ratio: 75% (15 out of 20) Germany’s leading ticketing and live entertainment firm rounds out the list with reliable returns and limited downside. Its average return of 4.12% and median return of 4.46% reflect steady performance during January, with a strong maximum gain of 16.51%.