Parliament majority fractured in stand-off over commissioner hearings

Confirmation hearings for the 26 commissioners-designate saw intense backroom negotiations between party leaders this week, exposing fractures and potential reform of the parliamentary majority that ushered in Ursula von der Leyen as president of the EU executive in July.

Most expected the formal approval process of the Commissioners-designate to wrap up following this week’s ‘Super Tuesday’ hearings, which saw MEPs question the six candidates for vice-president (VP) positions.

Party rivalries, strategic vetoes, and retaliations have led to a deadlock, however, postponing the final decision on the six VPs and one Commissioner indefinitely.

This political gridlock may delay the new EU executive’s start, initially planned for the beginning of December, although the Commission remains optimistic it will proceed as scheduled.

However, an attempt by Commission President von der Leyen to broker peace between leaders of the Christian democrats, socialists, and liberals failed, leaving the situation uncertain.

How did we get here?

A combination of national and EU-level issues turned this into one of the European Parliament’s most politically charged weeks, as parties sought to maximise their influence and suppress others.

The EPP has also been working to strengthen ties with the European Conservatives Party (ECR), aiming to secure a more right-leaning majority in the hemicycle – a move opposed by socialists, liberals, and greens which make up the current pro-EU majority that backed von der Leyen’s reappointment in July.

Consequently, conservative vice-president-designate Raffaele Fitto, a key figure in this coalition shift, has also become a target.

Meanwhile, certain commissioners-designate have been targeted in respect of elements of their portfolios with a view to weakening them.

For instance, the liberal faction is pushing to transfer oversight of health preparedness and reproductive rights from controversial Hungarian Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi – whose confirmation is also on hold – to the Belgian liberal commission candidate Hadja Lahbib.

National interests have also come into play: Spain’s EPP delegation has criticised Ribera’s response to recent floods in Valencia, diverting attention from Valencia’s governor Carlos Mazon, a fellow conservative who has attracted criticism for the long lunch he attended during the deluge.

Meanwhile, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni seized the opportunity to challenge her socialist opponents at home, the Democratic Party, who according to her are lobbying to deny Fitto an executive vice presidency against the Italian national interest.

Postponement: the winning tactic

When the schedule for the confirmation hearings was set last month, the EPP secured a strategic advantage by scheduling Ribera’s hearing last, leaving the socialists with no opportunity to retaliate should she be rejected.

To counter this, socialists and liberals delayed approving Hungary’s Várhelyi after last Monday’s hearing—maintaining the threat that they could reject him.

This triggered EPP fears that von der Leyen could be plunged into a hostage situation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who might simply refuse to appoint another commissioner in Várhelyi’s stead if he is rejected, or at least hold off on doing so until the next year.

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Technically, the Commission could begin work without a Hungarian Commissioner, but this could legally hinder decisions requiring unanimous approval, such as antitrust and merger policies—a scenario that would render von der Leyen’s new EU executive a lame duck.

With the postponements, all parties are essentially back to square one, needing a ‘package deal’ that would see Ribera, Fitto, and Várhelyi approved simultaneously. Although seven commissioners-designate remain on hold, these three alone are the centre of the political power play.

Von der Leyen to the rescue

With each party holding several detonators, breaking the deadlock is proving tricky.

Commission President von der Leyen began the week as a ringside observer, but she intervened mid-week meeting with political leaders on Wednesday.

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Her attempts to overcome the stalemate foundered, though a Commission spokesperson has said she remains “fully engaged” in the process.

Liberals and greens are urging her to take a stronger stance against a right-wing coalition, with liberal leader Valerie Hayer condemning EPP President Manfred Weber’s tactics as “irresponsible”.

Destination ‘Venezuela’?

Despite all this it remains likely that political groups will broker a compromise as they all want their own vice-president candidates approved and Várhelyi’s confirmation would clear the way for von der Leyen’s second term to start on schedule in December.

A possible compromise might see the EPP row back on its demands that Ribera appear before the Spanish Parliament and pledge to resign if a judicial investigation is launched against her, and the socialists and liberals retract their demands that Fitto be demoted from a vice presidency.

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Várhelyi might lose elements of his remit.

Ultimately the EPP holds one trump card: If the decision goes down to the wire of a committee vote on the candidates Ribera needs EPP support, while Fitto could pass with the backing also of the so-called ‘Venezuela’ coalition, consisting of the parties from the centre-right to the extreme right.

This coalition is named for the grouping in the Parliament which recognised opposition leader Edmundo González as the democratically elected president of Venezuela, but it has also been in evidence in key votes such as yesterday’s amendments to the EU deforestation rules.

The political message is clear: the pro-European coalition that previously backed von der Leyen is, if not entirely fractured, now at risk.

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This episode illustrates the shifting dynamics within the EU, with EPP leader Manfred Weber seeking to assemble a new right-wing majority that could eventually replace the traditional centrist coalition of Christian democrats, socialists, and liberals that ruled the hemicycle for over twenty years.

Whether the current Mexican stand-off between the parties leads to the rise of a Venezuela bloc remains to be seen, but the groundwork for it is being laid.