New report maps France’s biggest climate impacts by region

Drought, flooding and temperature increases of 4°C are predicted to hit France as climate change takes hold.

A new report from a network of environmental organisations has outlined how the climate crisis is already at work in France – and how it will continue to get worse.

It pinpoints which effects are the biggest threat to each of the country’s 18 administrative regions – 13 in France and 5 overseas.

“The impacts of climate change are diverse as France’s landscapes and are not expressed in the same way in all regions,” the report reads.

It finds that they are all already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change but each has its own vulnerabilities.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine and the Pyrenees: Drought and water resource concerns across France

Drought is a concern across France with the report warning that this could lead to growing tensions as households, agriculture and industry all compete for resources. Some projections show that the Loire, for example, could see its flow decrease by up to half in the coming years.

France’s largest region, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, is made up of diverse different environments from vast expanses of forest to long coastlines and the mountainous Pyrenees and the Massif Central. This means 3.9 million people, 69 per cent of the regional population, are exposed to at least one climactic hazard.

Of these, drought is the one that affects the highest number of people. Since 1950, rainfall has decreased and temperatures have increased. The region saw drought episodes in 2018, 2019, 2021 and, the worst of all in 2022 which broke all records. It was the hottest year ever recorded in the region with more than 70 days above 30°C and a drought that began in spring and lasted several months.

Made more likely by climate change, drought also compounds a number of the other most pressing risks across different regions. Extremely dry weather increases the chance of wildfires in highly forested areas, degrades soil leading to flooding in others and puts further pressure on already stressed agricultural resources.

Paris: Extreme heat has the biggest impact on cities

Cities like the capital Paris are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. On average, France has seen around 1.9°C of warming but it could reach more than 4°C of warming by 2100 with the climate policies currently in place.

The regions of Ile-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur are the first to be hit by extreme temperatures.

If greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, Ile-de-France would face 30 days of heatwave a year and temperatures that could peak at 50°C by 2050. High urbanisation makes the region particularly vulnerable as materials like concrete stone and metal absorb and retain heat. This creates something known as the urban heat island effect. Temperatures have already increased by an average of 2°C since the middle of the 20th century.

This heat has deadly consequences with Paris deemed one of the European cities with the highest relative risk in a study by the Lancet Planetary Health on excess mortality attributed to heat.

While these highly urbanised regions are most at risk, it is a similar story for all of France’s major cities.

Flooding puts 2.2 million people in Hauts-de-France at risk

In the north, Hauts-de-France’s biggest threat is extreme flooding with six out of 10 municipalities – home to 2.2 million people – at risk. Repeated floods hit the region in November 2023 when the equivalent of three months of rain fell in two weeks, impacting 244 municipalities and 450,000 inhabitants.

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Modification of the soil due to urbanisation makes it vulnerable to rapidly increasing levels of rainfall. Boulogne-sur-Mer has seen an increase of 29.3 mm per decade since the 1950s, for example.

The report also says there have been more concentrated rainfall episodes over shorter periods. Less rain in the summer leads to droughts and soil degradation then more rain in the winter with more extreme episodes increases the risk of flooding.

Sea level rise also makes Hauts-de-France’s coastal regions particularly vulnerable.

Rising sea levels and coastal erosion in Brittany

The most pressing climate impact in Brittany, which has a third of France’s coastline, is the threat of rising sea levels.

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In Brest, sea levels have risen by 20cm since 1900 – around 13 cm of that rise has happened since 1970.

The rate of rise is accelerating and will continue to do so regardless of the future greenhouse gas scenario. Limiting global warming to 2°C could buy the region time. With 2°C of warming two metres of sea level rise might not happen before 2300. If emissions continue to increase, it could rise one metre by the end of the century and 2 metres by 2150.

With rising sea levels comes the additional threat of coastal erosion. Around 130,000 people in the region are already facing the threat of submersion – particularly in Saint-Malo where 25,000 inhabitants live below sea level.

“The high exposure and high vulnerability of our coastlines to climate change are well established and these effects can therefore only worsen with rising sea levels” as reported by the High Council of Brittany for the Climate in its 2024 annual report.

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A ‘glimpse’ into France’s potential future

This is just a taste of the detail included in the 100-page report. Published on 19 September by Reseau Action Climat (RAC) in partnership with the Agency for Ecological Transition (Ademe) its authors outline exactly how specific climate risks are impacting each region of France and how they could get worse in the future.

The projections are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s global warming scenarios. It also uses detailed data from Météo-France, France’s High Council on Climate, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies and regional groups of climate experts.

The report’s authors say that while their analysis doesn’t show the future it does “give us a glimpse” of a world where greenhouse gas emissions aren’t cut.

“They [the scenarios] confirm the urgent need to act quickly, as the consequences of these ‘worst-case’ scenarios would be dramatic.”

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More money is needed for local authorities to adapt

Despite recommendations from France’s High Council for Climate, there has been no recent official assessment of the country’s climate risks and vulnerabilities that gives scenarios for each region.

The RAC hopes that, alongside encouraging action from the government, the report can become a vital tool to help local authorities tackle regional threats and accelerate the green transition.

But this requires money. The Institute for Climate Economics estimates that local authorities have invested around €8.4 billion a year for the ecological transition. To reach current climate goals, it says this needs to more than double to €19 billion a year. That includes employing 25,000 people in full-time positions dedicated to climate projects.

A green transition fund was presented by the former government as the main lever for financing the local ecological transition.

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Less than a year after the announcement, it has already been cut twice. It was reduced from €2.5 billion in the 2024 Finance Bill to €2 billion in February – a “protected” amount according to the Minister for Ecological Transition – then cut again to €1 billion for 2025.