How abortion rights could play a pivotal role in US elections

As one of the most contentious issues in US politics, abortion is expected to be a pivotal factor in the presidential election. At the same time, tens of millions of voters across the country will decide whether to guarantee abortion rights in their states’ constitutions.

Abortion will be on the ballot in 10 US states, including swing states that could change the course of the election and the battle for the control of Congress.

One in six US women of reproductive age say that abortion is the most important issue in this year’s vote, according to a recent analysis by health policy organisation KFF, and a New York Times/Siena College poll published in October found that abortion is the second-most crucial election issue for likely voters, after the economy.

Democratic candidate for president Kamala Harris has repeatedly highlighted the issue throughout her campaign, and vowed to protect and expand reproductive freedoms. Several Harris ads centre around the US Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn the 1973 Roe v Wade ruling that had made abortion a constitutional right.

Videos published by the Harris campaign in recent months show clips of the Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump taking credit for his part in the decision, having appointed three of the conservative justices in the court’s 6-3 abortion ruling.

Speaking at a Fox News town hall in January, Trump referred to the overturning of Roe v Wade and said: “I did it, and I’m proud to have done it”.

But in recent weeks, the Trump campaign has softened its rhetoric on abortion. Trump said earlier this month that he would veto a federal abortion ban if he is elected again, having previously refused to answer questions on the issue. He has said that abortion rights and regulations should be left to individual states, which is the current model.

Meanwhile, his wife and former first lady Melania Trump wrote in her memoir — which was published in early October — that she believes women should be able to access abortion without “intervention or pressure from government”.

Ten states will vote on abortion rights

Each state’s abortion regulations vary depending on factors such as time since conception and viability of the pregnancy. 

Several states — but not all — also have exceptions for rape and incest. 

In the 2024 election, Montana, Arizona, Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York and South Dakota will vote on constitutional amendments expanding access to abortions and other forms of reproductive healthcare.

Most of these ballot measures would overturn restrictions imposed after the 2022 Supreme Court decision.

For example, take the conservative-led state of Missouri. A “trigger ban” was passed by the state in 2019, set to go into effect if a court ruling erased federal abortion rights.

This saw Missouri become the first state to ban abortions after the overturning of Roe v Wade.

“I had just turned 18 and just graduated high school,” 20-year-old Missouri voter Elizabeth McCush told Euronews. “It was definitely a difficult thing to hear; you’re entering the adult world and suddenly find that a choice was taken away from you.”

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On 5 November, McCush plans to vote for Amendment 3 — the Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative — a measure that would enshrine abortion access up to foetal viability in the Missouri constitution. More than 380,000 people in Missouri signed a petition earlier this year to put abortion on the state’s ballot.

However, it was not without controversy. Anti-abortion activists claimed the proposal was submitted illegally, and Missouri’s Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft attempted to block it in September. Yet the Missouri Supreme Court ruled in a 4-3 decision later that month that Amendment 3 be placed on the state’s November ballot.

Hazel Myles, a 19-year-old student at the University of Missouri and anti-abortion advocate, told Euronews that she believes the amendment is vaguely defined and would prevent people from suing physicians providing reproductive healthcare.

“It prevents malpractice suits. So that takes away a lot of the accountability from the physician or the provider to ensure safe and effective care,” said Myles, who is part of Students for Life, an anti-abortion advocacy organisation. 

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As part of her advocacy work, Myles goes door-to-door campaigning against Amendment 3. She claims many Missourians falsely believe that abortion would be further restricted if the measure is not passed.

“Once you tell them that if they vote no on this, that the law that’s already in place will still be in place, and that those exceptions will still exist, they often change their minds on whether or not they’re going to vote ‘no’ on Amendment 3,” Myles explained. 

Opposing ballot measures in Nebraska

Most of the 10 states where abortion is on the ballot are like Missouri: people can vote for or against amendments that would expand abortion access. But in one state — Nebraska — there are competing initiatives. 

The Right to Abortion measure would protect abortion access until foetal viability. Opposing it, the Prohibit Abortions measure would amend the constitution to ban abortions in the second and third trimesters, with exceptions for rape, incest, and medical emergencies.

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Anti-abortion organisation Nebraska Right to Life wrote on its website that the Right to Abortion initiative jeopardises “the health and safety of women by allowing abortionists and individuals who are not licensed physicians to influence the medical decisions of a woman in crisis.” 

The organisation instead supports the Prohibit Abortions measure. It would not change the current reality in Nebraska, but enshrine current restrictions in the constitution. 

However, Allie Berry, campaign manager for Protect Our Rights, told Euronews that the anti-abortion measure is part of a larger push from conservative politicians to ban abortion from conception in Nebraska. 

She referenced a town hall in June 2023, where Nebraska governor and Republican Jim Pillen said: “I pushed hard to get us to 12 (weeks), but we’re going to end abortion”. 

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Berry added that restrictive laws can prevent women from getting necessary treatment, as doctors and medical institutions are unsure of what is legally allowed. 

“Women with pregnancy complications and conditions not explicitly covered by the current law are forced to bleed out, flee the state, or wait until they are dangerously ill because doctors have to consult attorneys before administering care,” she explained. 

With less than a week to go until election day, both Democrats and Republicans will be closely monitoring where voters stand on the abortion issue, not only in the 10 aforementioned states but also for its implications on the race for the White House.