Global warming may be making Europe less windy, study suggests

Global warming is making European summers less windy, according to new research.

The phenomenon, known as ‘stilling’, is being made worse by the warming of the land and troposphere – the layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface.

The study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign found that the decline in wind speeds, is projected to be less than 5 per cent between 2021 and 2050. It is also happening in northern mid-latitude regions like North America.

But even small decreases in wind speed could have an impact on the continent’s ability to generate power as Europe increasingly relies on renewable sources.

Wind speeds can be difficult to measure

In the summer and autumn of 2021, Europe experienced what is known as a ‘wind drought’ – where wind speeds were around 15 per cent below the annual average.

In the UK, this ‘drought’ was one of the least windy periods over the last 60 years, resulting in a dramatic drop in wind power. This forced the country to restart two closed coal power stations to make up the energy gap.

Researchers, however, have been conflicted over what events like this mean for the future. Wind speeds can be difficult to measure and are often influenced by the topography of the land or surrounding buildings. Even the most complete datasets aren’t great at capturing extremes, and this has long been a neglected area of research.

Despite conflicting data, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts slowing winds for the coming decades. By 2100, it says, average annual wind speeds could drop by up to 10 per cent.

By using more recent data, putting less emphasis on historical measurements and running more simulations, the new study found an increase in Europe’s summer stilling.

It is in line with other research that suggests the impact of our warming world on global wind speeds will become statistically significant in the second half of this century.

Will slowing winds be a problem for renewable energy?

The impact that a slowing of Europe’s wind speeds could have on renewable energy in the long term is still unclear, however.

In 2024, wind energy made up 17 per cent of the EU’s electricity mix with capacity continuing to increase. Despite a mixed situation for new projects across the bloc with numerous delays, it is still cheaper than fossil power sources like natural gas.

Even a 5 per cent drop in wind speeds, however, could result in significant swings in wind power generation, lead researcher Gan Zhang, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, told Bloomberg.

“The energy system is a marginal market,” he said. “That means if you change the margin by 5 to 10 per cent, the price response can be huge.”

Zhang suggests that Europe may need to be more creative with its renewable energy generation in the future to combat the problems these decreasing wind speeds could cause.