Georgia at a crossroads between EU and Russia as tense election looms

“You can see these all over Tbilisi,” says Ana Tavadze, pointing to the blue and yellow European flag.

The 27-year-old activist has been campaigning for three different organisations in the run-up to Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Saturday.

“This election is an existential moment in Georgia’s history,” she said, reflecting on Georgians’ chance to shape the country’s future in the EU — or outside it.

When polls open on Saturday, millions of Georgians at home and abroad will vote in an election that President Salome Zourabichvili has framed as a “referendum” on the country’s choice between Europe and Russia.

The country’s ruling Georgia Dream party will face four main opposition parties: United National Movement, Strong Georgia, Coalition for Change and Gakharia for Georgia.

All have signed the Georgian Charter, a call to action from Zourabichvili. In it, she asks the four parties to help remove Georgian Dream from power by blocking it from forming a coalition.

Critics say Georgian Dream, which has been in power since 2012, has lost the people’s trust thanks to the controversial “foreign agents” bill, also known as the “Russian law”, which sparked mass protests this year and froze Georgia’s EU accession process.

Founded and led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the party has proposed other legislation that the opposition says mimics laws introduced in Russia — including a recently passed bill that its detractors say severely restricts the LGTBQ+ community.

Georgian Dream has rejected the claims, stating it can guarantee peace with neighbouring Russia via pragmatic policies and describes the current elections as a choice between “peace and war”.

Moscow currently occupies 20% of the country’s territory in the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, following an invasion in 2008 that Georgian Dream says their opposition risks repeating.

Ivanishili and the country’s prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, have both promised to reset relations with the EU, arguing Georgia should join the bloc on its own terms. The party say they are on course to join the EU by 2030.

“We are clearly pro-European as a government, and we have evidenced it by our actions,” Kobakhidze told Euronews.

“You know that we are a Christian nation and Europe was always associated with Christianity. It was defending it, protecting Christianity for Georgia. So that’s why Europe was always a kind of natural choice for Georgia and for Georgians,” he explained.

“And that is one of the, or the strongest reason, why we want to be a fully-fledged member of the European family.”

What do predictions say?

Opinion polls have so far given contradictory results, with several of them commissioned by political parties.

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A poll by UK market research firm Savanta on Thursday puts Georgian Dream in the lead, but short of a majority, with 35% and Coalition for Change second at 19%.

Coalition for Change’s Marika Mikiashvili said although she was happy to see her party in second place, unseating Georgian Dream remains the priority.

“Right now, what we are focusing on is a coalition government that will deliver overall change and open accession talks with the European Union,” Mikiashvili told Euronews.

“It’s important that the Coalition for Change, a party that is supported by the youth, gets ahead, but forming a coalition government focused on democracy is the priority.”

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Mikiashvili said her party would aim to hold snap elections once the key reforms are made to reopen discussions with the EU, in line with the Georgian Charter.

The biggest party, United National Movement, currently polling at third place with 16% previously oversaw a controversial nine years in power. Mikiashvili says her party would be willing to enter a coalition with them in order to immediately remove Georgian Dream from power.

What are the obstacles?

Georgia’s pro-EU movement has been strong for decades, with a survey in March 2023 finding 85% of Georgians to be in favour of joining the bloc.

Despite the depth of approval, Georgian Dream secured a third term in power in 2020. Yet some experts suggest that the introduction of the foreign agents bill and the stalling of EU accession have permanently damaged Georgian Dream’s popularity.

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“Georgian Dream’s popularity has declined since the last elections, not least due to the catastrophic move they have made in the past years,” said Dr Shalva Dzebisashvili, head of Politics and International Relations at the University of Georgia.

“This isn’t a regular election,” Dzebisashvili told Euronews. “People know if we choose Georgian Dream it means the status quo, and the refusal of the European future.”

But if Georgian Dream’s popularity has indeed declined, pro-European campaigners say they are still concerned about voter intimidation in the election’s run-up.

Dzebisashvili points out that Georgian Dream controls the electoral commission, the court and thousands of public servants.

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“We are worried that in more remote regions and local municipalities, people could be either directly or indirectly influenced to vote for Georgian Dream.”

“We are worried about reports that people have been asked to show evidence of who they have voted for, and have been threatened with losing their jobs,” says Elene Kintsurashvili, a programme coordinator for the German Marshall Fund.

She points to a lack of polling stations for Georgian diaspora in neighbouring countries such as Poland, where she says the only polling station is in the country’s capital of Warsaw.

There are additional concerns that Russia will try and interfere during the election, as it did in Moldova when citizens went to the polls last weekend, where it launched disinformation and vote-buying campaigns.

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Experts also suggest that if Georgian Dream do finish short of a majority as the polls predict, they may not accept their defeat and allow the transfer of power to a different party.

“Knowing the party is simply not ready to admit defeat and follow a simple transition of power creates this kind of very tense feeling in the society,” Dzebisashvili said. “There is valid concern that they could try and use brute force.”

Kobakhidze has rejected these claims.

“I can say that Russia is not influential in Georgia,” he said. “There are no political parties in which they would have influence. There are no media channels with their influence.”

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“So that’s why the Russian side cannot influence the elections in Georgia,” Kobakhidze insisted.

What’s next?

The European Parliament confirmed the elections will be monitored by both domestic and international observers, including a delegation from the European Parliament.

Polls will open at 8 am local time (6 am CET) on Saturday and close that evening, with a clear picture of results expected to arrive between late Saturday and early Sunday morning.

The party with the most votes will have the right to form a government, with the president overseeing potential new elections.

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If Zourabichvili’s Georgian Charter holds, Georgian Dream will be unable to form a coalition as the remaining parties will refuse to work with them.

But in the absence of reliable polling, the outcome of the election remains unpredictable — as does Georgian Dream’s next move if it fails to secure a majority.

Euronews has reached out to Georgian Dream for further comment.