Fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire likely to hold, analysts say

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has held for over a month, although the terms of the deal appear unlikely to be fully met by the deadline in late January.

The agreement, struck on 27 November to halt the conflict, required Hezbollah to immediately cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and required Israel to withdraw its forces there and hand control of the region over to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers in 60 days.

So far, Israel has only withdrawn from two of the many towns it controls in southern Lebanon. It has continued striking what it claims are Hezbollah bases, accusing the group of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be seized and destroyed.

Hezbollah, which has been severely weakened by nearly 14 months of conflict, has warned of resuming hostilities if Israel fails to fully withdraw by the 60-day deadline.

Despite accusations of ceasefire violations from both sides, analysts suggest the truce is likely to hold, offering hope for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war and still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is somewhat ambiguous and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He noted that this flexibility may help the agreement hold in the face of changing circumstances, including the ousting of Syria’s long-time leader Bashar al-Assad which occured just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With al-Assad’s departure, Hezbollah lost a key smuggling route for weapons from Iran, further weakening the group. However, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah first launched rockets into Israel on 8 October 2023, a day after Hamas attacked Israel which ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed over 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than one million Lebanese were displaced.

Hezbollah’s rocket fire forced around 60,000 people to flee their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed in operations inside Lebanon.

What does the ceasefire agreement say?

The deal stipulates that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, though both sides are permitted to act in self-defence, a term that remains open to interpretation.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from attacking Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah’s facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — a task that could eventually extend to the rest of the country, though this is not explicitly mentioned in the agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon, and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are responsible for overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented?

Hezbollah has largely halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, while Israel has refrained from attacking Hezbollah in most parts of Lebanon. However, Israel has continued regular airstrikes against what it claims are militant sites in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.

Israel has withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon – Khiam and Shamaa – but still occupies around 60 others, according to the International Organisation for Migration. Around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

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Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire and submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council, alleging 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and 22 December 2023. According to the complaint, these attacks have hamstrung the Lebanese army’s efforts to deploy in the south and uphold the ceasefire.

Israel, in turn, accuses Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire hundreds of times and has filed its own complaint with the Security Council. It claims Hezbollah militants have moved ammunition, attempted to attack Israeli soldiers, and prepared and launched rockets towards northern Israel, among other violations.

Until it hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israel has been targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and tunnels. Lebanese authorities say that Israel has also destroyed civilian homes and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days?

Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than expected, due in part to the lack of sufficient Lebanese army forces to take over, according to Lt Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesperson. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before it can deploy troops in the towns.

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Shoshani stated that Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army’s control in the areas it has withdrawn from, and while it would prefer a faster transfer, security is the main priority.

Israel does not consider the 60-day deadline for withdrawal to be “sacred”, according to Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University. He suggests Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel is prepared transfer control.

Hezbollah officials have stated that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days after the ceasefire’s commencement, they may resume attacks. However, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said on Wednesday that for now, the group is refraining from action to give the Lebanese state a chance to “take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

During the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered significant losses, including leadership casualties, weapons, and forces, due to Israeli airstrikes and a ground invasion. Al-Assad’s fall was another major setback for the group.

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“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad explained. Hezbollah, in its weakened state, now has a “strong interest” in ensuring the agreement does not collapse, “despite Israeli violations”, he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerrilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, according to former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni. Even if Israel withdraws all its ground troops, Jouni warned, the Israeli military could continue sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, similar to its operations in Syria.