Europe’s seat at the table still uncertain after diplomatic flurry

Europe’s seat at the negotiating table to end Russia’s war on Ukraine remains shrouded in deep uncertainty after a flurry of diplomatic encounters.

Keith Kellogg, the US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, met separately on Tuesday with Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and António Costa, the president of the European Council, both of whom are keen to reassert the bloc’s position in the rapidly moving process promoted by Donald Trump.

The outcome of the meetings suggests neither president has obtained additional reassurances that a seat would be reserved for Europe.

However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from Saudi Arabia after the first round of talks with his Russian counterpart, said the EU would be asked to join the table but only to grant sanctions relief for the Kremlin.

“There are other parties that have sanctions, the European Union is going to have to be at the table at some point because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed,” Rubio said, insisting concessions on “all sides” will have to be made.

“No one is being sidelined here,” he added.

Rubio’s suggestion of sanctions relief runs counter to the EU’s stated purpose of making Russia pay for its aggression on Ukraine. Brussels recently rolled out a groundbreaking loan for Kyiv using Russia’s frozen assets as collateral. If the money was released, as the Kremlin wishes, the loan would fall apart and leave capitals liable for repayments.

During her meeting with Kellogg, von der Leyen insisted the EU was willing to “work alongside the US to end the bloodshed and help secure the just and lasting peace that Ukraine and its people rightfully deserve,” her office said in a read-out.

The president “reiterated that any resolution must respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, backed by strong security guarantees.”

Additionally, von der Leyen told Kellogg the bloc was “ready” to step up its financial and military support for Ukraine, a key demand from the Trump administration. The latest figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy confirm Europe’s collective support (€132 billion) has outpaced America’s (€114 billion).

Asked if von der Leyen had secured any promise that Europe would have a seat and its voice would be heard, a spokesperson for the Commission refrained from sharing further details and said no solution for Ukraine should be “worked out” without Kyiv’s and the EU’s involvement. (Ukraine is a candidate to join the bloc.)

“The different meetings that are taking place have to be seen as the beginning of a process,” the spokesperson said. “Ultimately these meetings have to come together to see how we take things forward with all parties concerned.”

The Costa-Kellogg meeting had a similar tenor.

“Ukraine can count on Europe. We are ready to continue to work constructively with the US to ensure peace and security,” Costa said on social media.

The European Council president cautioned that “peace cannot be a simple ceasefire,” an assessment shared by other European leaders who worry a rushed deal to stop the fighting would allow Russia to regroup its forces and launch a new conflict in the future.

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Kellogg’s office did not immediately provide a readout. On his X account, he described his sitdown with Costa as “great discussions.”

Table for four?

The meetings with Kellogg come a day after a group of eleven European leaders, including von der Leyen and Costa, gathered in Paris for an emergency meeting convened by French President Emmanuel Macron in reaction to the phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and the sudden start of negotiations.

The leaders agreed to ramp up their financial and military support for Ukraine but failed to reach common ground on new security guarantees, such as a potential peacekeeping mission. The White House has distributed a questionnaire asking Europeans about their willingness to deploy such a force in Ukraine and their expectations from America’s side.

Macron spoke with Trump before and after the summit.

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The French leader also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has repeatedly warned his country would not accept a deal made behind its back.

“Security guarantees must be robust and reliable,” Zelenskyy said after speaking with Macron on Monday evening. “Any other decision without such guarantees – such as a fragile ceasefire – would only serve as another deception by Russia and a prelude to a new Russian war against Ukraine or other European nations.”

The Trump-Putin call, which took place without prior consultation with Western allies, broke the three-year-long effort to isolate the Russian leader diplomatically and sent powerful shockwaves across European capitals, leaving them visibly rattled.

Kellogg compounded the sense of panic when he said Europe would be consulted throughout the process but ultimately excluded from the negotiating table.

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“What we don’t want to do is get into a large group discussion,” the retired general said last week at the Munich Security Conference.

Kellogg explained the peace process would follow a “dual-track” approach: on the one hand, the US will speak with Russia and, on the other hand, the US will speak with Ukraine and democratic allies that back the war-torn nation.

The first US-Russia meeting happened on Tuesday, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio holding talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia. The two sides agreed to appoint dedicated teams to continue the negotiations.

The Kremlin said the encounter had been a “serious conversation on all issues” but that it was “difficult” to assess whether positions were “converging.”

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Secretary Rubio called it “the first step of a long and difficult journey,” with more meetings to follow. “The goal is to bring an end to this conflict in a way that’s fair, enduring, sustainable and acceptable to all parties involved,” Rubio said.

Prior to the talks in Riyadh, Sergei Lavrov rejected Europe’s inclusion in the process.

“I don’t know what they should do at the negotiating table. If they are going to wheedle out some sly ideas about freezing the conflict, while they themselves (…) will have in mind the continuation of the war, then why invite them there?” he sad.

No date has yet been set for a meeting between Trump and Putin.

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