Could third-party ‘spoiler’ candidates disrupt the US election?

Either Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump will be the next US president after an election that is predicted to be incredibly close. But what of the country’s third-party and independent candidates?

The format of US elections up and down the ballot overwhelmingly reinforces the unofficial but de facto two-party system, but that doesn’t stop other candidates from running. In 2020, the third-place contender was Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen with 1.9 million votes, or about 1.2% of the national popular vote. Behind her was the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins, with 0.3%. 

It’s virtually impossible that any of the 2024 third-party or independent candidates will come near winning the presidency, or even a state. None of them are even on every state’s ballot.

But in a country where state-by-state results matter and margins of victory are often extremely close, these contenders may have the ability to siphon off enough votes to decide whether Trump and Harris wins any of this year’s 7 swing states.

Here’s a look at the major third-party candidates and what they claim to represent.

The Libertarian Party: Chase Oliver

The Libertarian Party usually places a distant third in presidential races. The party’s ideals centre around rolling back the state, particularly the US federal government.

Chase Oliver is the 2024 Libertarian Party candidate. A Democrat until 2009, he worked in the restaurant business for 13 years before joining the corporate maritime industry.

His most notable foray into politics was during the highly-contentious 2022 senate election in Georgia. As a Libertarian, Oliver received over 2% of the popular vote.

Although he was eliminated, Democratic and Republican political opponents blamed Oliver for forcing a runoff election by stealing votes. He refused to endorse either of the two remaining candidates afterwards.

Oliver is also openly gay, and joined the Libertarian party after speaking with members at a pride festival in Atlanta.

His campaign platform involves policies that weaken the power of government, such as the deregulation of businesses, abolition of the Department of Education, and simplification of the immigration process.

Many political scientists and campaign officials believe that the Libertarian Party’s policies appeal more heavily to Republican voters than Democrats. In the upcoming election, Oliver may garner support from people who would have preferred Trump. 

Oliver and running mate Mike ter Maat aren’t listed on the ballot in every state, but he is the best-represented of any non-major-party candidate: they have qualified for the ballot in 47 states, just missing out on Illinois, New York, and Tennessee — none of which are swing states.

The Green Party: Jill Stein

Typically placing fourth behind the Libertarians is the Green Party. Its leaders claim to be more progressive than Democrats in many areas, with policies that priorities environmentalism and social justice.

This election’s Green candidate is Jill Stein, who before becoming a perennial candidate was a doctor and a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. 

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Stein previously represented the Green Party as a presidential nominee in 2012 and 2016. Some Americans blame her for helping Trump win the election in 2016, as her total vote count in the swing state of Wisconsin was larger than Trump’s razor-thin margin of victory.

The 2024 Stein platform includes the usual Green Party policies, but also emphasises support for Palestine in the current conflict with Israel. Stein has been a vocal critic of Harris and the current administration’s handling of the war.

The Green Party has historically denied criticisms that its candidates make it harder for Democrats to win key states. Instead, its leaders claim that they attract disengaged left-wing voters. 

“We think we’re bringing people off their couch to vote for a candidate that matches up with their values,” a Stein campaign spokesperson told Euronews. 

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“The idea that the two major parties have a right to the White House and we would be spoiling one of their candidacies just doesn’t make sense to us.”

But many of Stein’s critics within the Democratic Party do not just regard her as an inconsiderate spoiler. In 2019, Hillary Clinton described her as a “Russian asset” — and in a recent statement, a Democratic National Committee spokesman described her as “a useful idiot for Russia”, saying that “after parroting Kremlin talking points and being propped up by bad actors in 2016 she’s at it again”.

Stein denies these claims, but she has previously been pictured dining with Vladimir Putin and key Trump ally Michael Flynn, who twice pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his Russian contacts.

Stein and running mate Butch Ware appear on the ballot in 39 states. These include every predicted swing state except Nevada.

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Independents: RFK Jr. and Cornel West

Alongside the third parties are independent candidates representing no political party — and in an unusual turn of events, the independent featured on more state ballots than any other is no longer running

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a notorious anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist whose father was assassinated while running for president in 1968, was polling at around 5% nationally before he dropped out of the race in August. 

His campaign was marred by bizarre scandals, among them the revelation that he once dumped a bear carcass in New York’s Central Park and disguised it as the victim of a cycling accident.

There was also the news that a worm had consumed part of the candidate’s brain more than a decade ago.

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It was initially unclear from polling whether Kennedy would pull more votes from the Democrats or the Republicans, but he ultimately dropped out and endorsed Trump.

He then attempted to remove his name from the ballot in several states, but because he dropped out after some states’ legal deadlines for ballot alterations, Kennedy remains on 30 ballots across the country. Among them are two swing states: Wisconsin and Michigan.

The other noteworthy independent candidate is Cornel West, an academic who has taught at universities in the US and France.

A staunch anti-war left-winger, West has previously supported the Democratic Socialists of America and 2016 Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders. His platform includes justice for minorities and wealth redistribution through policies such as Universal Basic Income and a national $27 (€24.90) minimum wage.

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West and running mate Melina Abdullah are on the ballot in 15 states, among them North Carolina and Wisconsin.

The campaigns for Oliver and West did not respond to requests for comment.