Can Russian forces push Ukrainians out of Kursk by mid-October?

Russian forces have reportedly been assigned with pushing the Ukrainian army out of the Kursk region by mid-October — or in less than a month. 

They have also been told to establish a “buffer zone” into Ukrainian border areas in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October.

How doable is it? According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian military is very unlikely to achieve this result, which the ISW labelled as a “significant undertaking” in such a short period of time. 

What is happening in the Kursk region?

Russian forces have been on a counteroffensive within the Ukrainian salient — the piece of Russian territory captured by Kyiv’s forces since the beginning of the incursion, now a theatre of operations in the region — roughly since 10 September. 

A few days into the Russian counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border in a different area, around 30 kilometres west of the main salient.

The operation has been seen as a repeat of the 6 August cross-border assault. Although smaller in scale, it might have significant consequences. 

Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced east of Veseloye, west of the main salient.

If they continue to try to bypass Veseloye and immediately strike Glushkovo, this could allow them to press the Russian army group to a natural barrier—the Seym River.

They could achieve this by turning east and northeast towards the main salient and trying to connect with the Ukrainian forces there. In this case, Ukrainian forces could trap and cut off thousands of Russian personnel. 

What do Ukraine and Russia want in Kursk?

Since Russian forces began the counterattacks within the main salient, they have not yet started large-scale combat operations that would indicate a concerted counteroffensive operation aimed at completely expelling Ukrainian forces the area, the ISW stated. 

The think tank explained that sustained counteroffensive operations within the Kursk region will require Russian forces to redeploy additional elements from Ukraine and commit newly generated forces from within Russia to the area instead of the frontline in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces also might need additional elements if they were to continue their push in Kursk region.

While they haven’t yet established control of all areas throughout the salient, the ISW assesses that they most certainly have prepared positions within some areas that will pose challenges to any concerted Russian counter-offensive. 

Journalist • Sasha Vakulina

Additional sources • ISW