A bad deal for Ukraine is a win for Putin — ex-Foreign Minister Kuleba

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump signalled the start of negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

He conducted one-to-one phone calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and announced shortly after that he plans to meet Putin in Saudi Arabia — though no date, time, or other details have yet been announced.

And this weekend, Trump’s Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are set to meet a delegation of Ukrainian counterparts, led by Zelenskyy, at the Munich Security Conference.

Ahead of the conference, Euronews spoke to Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba about whether Trump can achieve a just peace, Europe’s role in the conflict and the potential of European peacekeeping troops, and why he believes it’s too early to talk about elections in Ukraine.

Euronews: US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth has said that Ukraine’s NATO membership is off the table and called the restoration of the pre-2014 borders “unrealistic”. What does that mean for Ukraine? 

Dmytro Kuleba: Well, first of all, it means that the US conceded on two of the three most critical negotiating points even before entering into any meaningful negotiations. I’d like to believe that this is part of their strategy.

Overall, Russia is interested in three topics: land, NATO, and money. Now, we see that land and NATO are gone without any fight already. Of course, Ukraine will continue to insist on it, but the US position has been set more than squarely.

What stays on the table is money. That’ll be mostly about sanctions, frozen Russian assets and a new element: the raw material agreement that Trump wants to sign with Ukraine.

To Ukraine, that doesn’t sound good. But on the other side, we’re just beginning the process. Today, Trump is trying to make a hard push to corner and limit the corridor for Ukraine to show Putin that this is how tough he could treat Russia if Russia misbehaves.

Euronews: But is he tough on Russia? It looks like he’s fulfilling Putin’s demands and not Ukraine’s.

Kuleba: He’s showing how tough he can be in principle. Around three weeks ago, he posted a threatening message to Russia on social media, saying he will slap tariffs on Russia if it doesn’t behave constructively.

Since then, he did nothing that wouldn’t accommodate the Russian vision for how the war could end. Russia did very little, if anything, regarding ending the war. Quite the contrary: we saw a missile attack on Kyiv just a few days ago. 

But Putin found another way to please Trump: he released a US citizen. Putin is playing a smart game of pleasing Trump without making any concessions on the war itself. 

Trump can project an image of strength, but he’s done nothing so far. He has been tough only on Ukraine, which makes Kyiv concerned, to say the least.

We’re still at a very early phase of the conversation. There are many “ifs” and “coulds” ahead of us. The best strategy Kyiv can adopt now is to remain cool-headed and avoid any rush. Rushing would put Ukraine in a weak position. 

Euronews: What do Ukrainians think of these strategic “deal-making” statements?

Kuleba: Ukrainians consider ceding any territory a disaster, but that’s counterbalanced by their wish to end the fighting.

On the face of it, Ukrainians say they want the war to end. That makes Moscow and Washington believe that Ukrainians would accept any solution as long as the fighting stops. But if you go under the surface, Ukrainians have different feelings. They’re not ready to accept just any solution.

The outcome will be that since we can punish neither Moscow nor Washington, (Ukrainians’) anger would be directed towards Ukrainian politicians. Especially if they believe the deal to be bad.

In a nutshell, they’ll accept a stop to the war, but then they’ll punish the politicians for stopping the war on these terms. We’re a democracy, so it’ll be done democratically, but this will be more or less the outcome.

The biggest problem isn’t Ukraine or the Ukrainian people, but whether Putin is going to abide by any agreement that may be struck.

Everything we know about him from the last 10 years tells us he won’t. His usual behaviour is signing a deal and coming up with hundreds of reasons why Ukraine should be blamed for not abiding by the deal properly while attacking Ukraine with missiles on the ground and potentially from the inside.

Europeans have to be clear about this as well: a bad deal for Ukraine will only embolden Putin to become more aggressive towards Europe. He’ll interpret a bad deal as a weakness of the West.

Euronews: What does freezing the front line, potentially secured by peacekeepers, mean? Especially if Putin breaks any agreement and attacks Ukraine again. Is this now merely a “European problem”?

Kuleba: There won’t be any peacekeeping troops. We should be honest with each other about this. Now that the US has clearly stated NATO to be a no-go, I struggle to imagine what any security guarantees to Ukraine can look like and why Putin should stop.

Freezing the front line and establishing a ceasefire is difficult but achievable. Holding the ceasefire is very complicated; ending the war and establishing lasting peace is unfeasible at this point. Ukrainians understand that and want an answer on how real peace can be achieved.

If there is a ceasefire, Russia will blame Ukraine for violating it and resume its offensive. That would be the end of all peace efforts.

Euronews: I want to touch on the peacekeepers again. Wouldn’t that be a way for Europe to step up?

Kuleba: There are 3,000 kilometres of front line. Zelenskyy has said at least 200,000 troops are needed, and he’s very humble in his assessment. That would mean the entire armed forces of the EU would have to take part in this peacekeeping operation. And if you deployed 200,000 to the front line, it would require at least another 200,000 at home, resting, preparing for rotation. 

I cannot even count how much this mission would cost. And if you have all that money that you’re ready to invest in peacekeepers, it’ll be much cheaper to give it to Ukraine instead and allow us to build up our army and fight the Russians without exposing EU soldiers to the threat of being killed in battle.

Euronews: Is there any hope for Ukraine?

Kuleba: Of course. We were considered doomed after 2014. I remember all the conversations in and outside of Ukraine after the seizure of Crimea; I was told there was no chance we’d survive.

In 2022, everyone said Ukraine would be occupied and destroyed by Russia in several days or weeks. We were given no longer than two weeks, yet we’re still fighting. We’ve survived, and we’re still a nation. Ukraine can still fight.

The real problem that hasn’t been solved since 2014 is that Russia knows exactly what it wants. It’s two things: Ukraine vanishes from the map and becomes Russia, and second, the weakness of the West is exposed to the whole world. The message will be that the West is incapable of stopping Russia. If it worked in Ukraine, why wouldn’t it work in other parts of the world as well? 

Putin knows what he wants to achieve. The West doesn’t. The West didn’t know in 2014, in 2022, and still doesn’t know now.

Euronews: What do you expect from the Munich Security Conference? Do you expect anything from the US?

Kuleba: I don’t think anyone from the current administration can say anything different to what Trump said. This isn’t an administration with multiple voices and opinions. One man says what needs to be said and what needs to be done, and everyone else picks up and follows the instructions.

I’ve heard from the organisers of the Munich Security Conference that they’re not only sold out, but for the first time, the number of applications for attendance badges has exceeded the number available.

There are high expectations, but I don’t think anything new will come from the US. The question is whether Europe will speak up.

Europe has been silent so far. It has to give its voice and express its view. Everything Trump has said and done so far contradicted not just Ukrainian but also European interests.

Euronews: The White House press speaker, Karoline Leavitt, has said that Europe won’t be sitting at the table at any future negotiations. 

Kuleba: If Europe takes the words of the press secretary as instructions to not act, then Europe is doomed. As Trump rightly says, the difference between the US and Europe when it comes to the war in Ukraine is that an ocean doesn’t separate Russia from Europe.

Euronews: In the last three years, Europe seems not to have made up its mind yet what it actually wants. Is Trump going to be the catalyst that forces Europe to decide?

Kuleba: We’ve seen some discussions and announcements from the European Commission and the European Council on investments in the defence industries and boosting the AI sector of the EU economy. Europe realised it had to wake up. The problem is that being in a union isn’t equal to being united.

If Europe doesn’t speak up at this year’s Munich Security Conference and limits itself to listening only to what Trump’s people and Zelenskyy will be saying, it’ll be a huge strategic loss and humiliation for Europe.

We shouldn’t have overly high expectations. Europe failed on many accounts in the last decade but has to be commended for something unprecedented for itself in the last few years: sending weapons to Ukraine, putting sanctions on Russia and opening the enlargement process for Ukraine. These things were unimaginable only a few years ago.

Europe has demonstrated the ability to act. The question is whether it’s ready to take its action to the next level.

Euronews: You’re still a popular politician in Ukraine despite no longer being in office. Some hope they will find your name on the ballot for the next presidential elections. Are you ruling out a future in politics?

Kuleba: Life taught me that ruling anything out is the biggest mistake you can make. 

We have a saying in Ukraine: “A man makes his plans, and God laughs.” You never know what God, or destiny, will take you to. Am I considering politics at this point in my life? No, I’m not.

Moreover, I believe any conversation about elections in Ukraine at this point is premature and works against Ukraine’s interests. Politicians have to focus their efforts on defending the country and ensuring unity in Ukrainian society.

I despise politicians who dived into the electoral process in February 2025. It’s too early. It’s time for Ukrainian politicians to become statesmen. Statesmen think of the country; politicians think of winning elections.

This is my position as of now. Life is complicated, challenging and dynamic. Let’s see how it goes, but I think it’s too early to think of elections at this point.