Each AFC East team’s key to victory in Week 4

We’ve reached Week 4 of the regular season, and the AFC East will be one of the most intriguing divisions to follow.

The undefeated Buffalo Bills aim to build on their stellar start against a Baltimore team that may have found its groove in Week 3 and wants to prove it’s still an AFC powerhouse. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are seeking their third consecutive win, while the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots hope to keep their seasons from completely spiraling.

With that in mind, here is one thing each AFC East team must do to secure a victory in Week 4. 

Buffalo Bills (3-0)

Bills at Ravens / 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday

Key to victory: Limit big runs 

It’s no secret that the Ravens are a run-first offense, and the only way to force them to abandon their approach is by establishing a big lead early. The Bills quickly ran up the score on their last two opponents, but this is far from a simple task. Buffalo’s run defense hasn’t been overly impressive to begin 2024, which bodes well for the Ravens, who rushed for 274 yards on 45 carries during last week’s 28-25 win over Dallas.

Even so, although the Bills might not be able to shut down the Ravens’ rushing attack, limiting big runs will likely be a deciding factor in the game’s outcome. Per Pro Football Focus, Baltimore leads the NFL with 19 explosive runs this season, while Buffalo has allowed an explosive run on 19% of carries, the third-worst among teams. 

Even though the Bills defense will be responsible for keeping Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry in check, the offense could make the unit’s job easier by airing the ball out. Through three games, Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards (946) and second-most yards after the catch (453), a promising sign for the Bills, whose 7.3 YAC per completion ranks second in the NFL. 

Miami Dolphins (1-2)

Titans at Dolphins / 7:30 p.m. ET Monday 

Key to victory: Utilize QB Tyler Huntley’s legs 

Winning the turnover battle in this matchup will be crucial for Miami, especially since Titans QB Will Levis has already turned the ball over an NFL-high eight times this season. However, after scoring just three points last week, the Dolphins offense must show signs of life against Tennessee, and the team hopes its quarterback change provides the spark it needs.

With backup QB Skylar Thompson dealing with a rib injury, Huntley, who was signed off Cleveland’s practice squad last week, will start for the Dolphins on “Monday Night Football.” Huntley has appeared in 20 games throughout his career, including nine starts, throwing for 1,957 yards with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions.

While he isn’t a prolific rusher, Huntley can make and extend plays with his legs. Miami must lean on that aspect of his game, particularly since the Dolphins’ offensive line has been underwhelming in pass protection. Not to mention that the Titans’ defense couldn’t stop the run during last week’s loss to Green Bay, allowing 188 rushing yards, 73 of which came from backup QB Malik Willis. 

New York Jets (2-1)

Broncos at Jets / 1 p.m. ET Sunday

Key to victory: Keep bringing the pressure 

Although edge-rusher Haason Reddick (contract dispute) hasn’t suited up this season, the Jets pass rush has been highly productive through three games. In addition to ranking third in sacks (14), New York’s 16.9% sack rate per pass attempt leads the NFL.

Denver’s offensive line has been a middle-of-the-pack unit regarding pass protection, as it sits 14th in pass block win rate (61%). Even so, if the Jets can generate pressure, they should be able to rattle Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix and potentially coast to another win behind their smothering defense.

The first-round pick Nix is coming off the best outing of his young career, completing 69.4% of his passes for 216 yards during Denver’s commanding 26-7 Week 3 win over Tampa Bay. However, the 24-year-old has struggled mightily when defenses have brought the heat. When under pressure this season, Nix has thrown for just 170 yards and two interceptions while posting a 44.7% completion rate and a 74.9 passer rating, the fourth-lowest among quarterbacks with at least 12 dropbacks. 

New England Patriots (1-2) 

Patriots at 49ers / 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday 

Key to victory: Establish the run early 

After averaging the third-most rush attempts among teams over their first two games (37.5), the Patriots ran the ball just 15 times in last week’s 24-3 road loss to the Jets. While New England had to abandon the ground game to keep up with New York, it still didn’t run the ball often at the beginning of the contest.

While the 49ers are undermanned due to injuries, the Patriots must regain their ground-and-pound identity if they’re going to pull off an upset on Sunday.

The 49ers defense is one of the NFL’s more talented units, though it appears more vulnerable this season than in previous seasons. According to Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle, the 49ers allow 4.5 yards per rush attempt — tied for the eighth-highest in the league — and the third-most yards per play (6.1).

By establishing the run game early, the Patriots can control the clock, open up the playbook and methodically take shots, hoping that San Francisco’s big-play struggles will continue.