Dougherty’s college football Week 8 picks and preview

Another week, another banger of a college football slate for us to enjoy. We’d be watching these games even if we didn’t have any action on them, but you know we have to sprinkle in some bets to spice things up. Let’s break down the five biggest matchups on the Week 8 college football slate and find a winning bet for each one.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ No. 16 Indiana Hoosiers

Saturday, Oct. 19, Noon ET, FOX

Indiana finds itself in unfamiliar territory at 6-0 and ranked 16th in the AP Poll. What a start it’s been for new head coach Curt Cignetti, but are we sure the Hoosiers are the 16th-best team in the country? Indiana hasn’t faced a team ranked better than 50th in total defense, and that was UCLA. The Bruins rank 107th in passing yards allowed per game and 127th in points per game, so that’s a low bar for IU’s toughest test to date.

Nebraska’s defense ranks eighth in total defense and points allowed per game, and quarterback Dylan Raiola will present a challenge the Hoosiers haven’t seen yet. 

The bet to make: Nebraska +6.5 (-110 BetMGM)

No. 6 Miami Hurricanes @ Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, Oct. 19, Noon ET, ABC

Miami is clinging to its No. 6 ranking despite flirting with disaster over the last few weeks. The Hurricanes survived a controversial last-second call to beat Virginia Tech by four and needed a miraculous, 25-point comeback against California to stay undefeated. Cam Ward is still one of the most talented players in the country, but he struggles when under pressure.

Luckily for Ward, Louisville ranks just 115th in the country in sack rate. We don’t trust either defense to make stops and limit explosive plays right now, so there’s only one bet to make here.

The bet to make: Over 60.5 (-104 FanDuel)

No. 24 Michigan Wolverines @ No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, Oct. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Luke Altmeyer is having a career year with the Fighting Illini. The redshirt junior has thrown for 1,426 yards, 14 touchdowns and only one interception through six starts, but we don’t trust him to step up in competition and perform.

A majority of Altmeyer’s stats have come against bottom-feeder defenses such as Purdue, Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan. In his start on the road against Penn State, Altmeyer completed just 16 of his 25 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown and one pick. Michigan’s defense is loaded with NFL talent and is much closer to Penn State than Purdue. 

The bet to make: Illinois team total under 18.5 (-105 DraftKings)

No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide @ No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers

Saturday, Oct. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Like Miami, Alabama looks broken right now. The Crimson Tide knocked off Georgia in the game of the year a few weeks ago, then proceeded to lose to Vanderbilt on the road and barely squeak by South Carolina at home. Alabama was outplayed in both games.

Tennessee hasn’t been much better with a loss to Arkansas and an overtime win against Florida in its last two games. Nico Iamaleava, after looking like a Heisman contender through four starts, has turned into a pumpkin just in time for the Halloween season. Both defenses are weak in the secondary and are prone to giving up explosive plays, so this is a great spot for Iamaleava and Jalen Milroe to have bounce-back performances.

The bet to make: Over 57 (-110 DK)

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs @ No. 1 Texas Longhorns

Saturday, Oct. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Texas is regarded as the best team in the country and on another level compared to every other contender, but we don’t agree with that assessment. The Longhorns’ best two wins came against Michigan and Oklahoma, and now we know both teams are offensively inept. 

This Georgia offense led by Carson Beck and Trevor Ettienne is a different animal. We’ve seen Kirby Smart’s team dominate in this type of situation time and time again over the last few years, but Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns haven’t stepped up in class and proved they belong just yet. 

The bet to make: Georgia +5 (-110 DK)