Devils Fans Need to Accept Dawson Mercer for What He Is – The Hockey Writers New Jersey Devils Latest News, Analysis & More

On Saturday night, the New Jersey Devils were in prime position to come out with some points against their rival Washington Capitals. They had a 3-2 lead about halfway through and were searching for more. Then Dawson Mercer’s stick came up high on Dylan Strome, who drew blood. A four-minute double-minor was called which led to two power play goals against. 

“That’s the difference in the game,” said head coach Sheldon Keefe after the Devils eventually fell 6-5. While Keefe did acknowledge other factors, like a poor first period and a blunder by Jake Allen, Mercer’s undisciplined action seemed to be the most obvious momentum swing.

Look, it happens to everyone now and then, but Mercer’s on-ice play this season hasn’t earned him any benefit of the doubt. He has just five goals and eight assists in 27 games. Since his excellent 27-goal, 56-point season in 2022-23, there seemed to be some very high expectations for him, which he hasn’t come close to meeting.

At the age of just 21 in 2022-23, he produced 0.33 goals per game (G/GP) and 0.68 points per game (P/GP). He was often the best player on the ice for the Devils in their franchise-record 52-win season. Since then, his G/GP has dropped ~33% to 0.22. His P/GP has dropped ~38%, to 0.42.

He was given a three-year, $12 million contract extension after holding out for a portion of training camp. While talks were still ongoing, general manager Tom Fitzgerald said, “Dawson (Mercer) we feel is a long-term player for us.”

Mercer Is a Solid Bottom-Sixer

But in his fourth season now, it’s becoming much clearer that Mercer’s 2022-23 season was an outlier, not the norm. It’s understandable that after potting almost 30 goals at the age of 21, fans would expect him to produce at an elite level in the future. 

Here’s the reality: It’s time to shift the view on Mercer. His numbers – both advanced and standard metrics – prove that he isn’t a top-sixer. He’s someone who can hold his own and perform well enough in a bottom-six role. It may not be easy for diehard Devils fans to come to terms with that, but it’s not necessarily a bad thing.

While he may not get back to 27 goals, he scored 17 and 20 in his first and third seasons, respectively. This season, he’s on pace for 15. Any team would take that from a bottom-sixer, especially when they bring other elements to their game like Mercer does.

Related: New Jersey Devils’ Coach Frustrated as Bad Habit From Last Season Starts to Resurface

He excels on the penalty kill, especially at forechecking and pinning the puck deep in the other end. It’s a huge reason why the Devils’ penalty kill is ranked in the top-ten of the NHL currently, at 81%. He’s helped contribute to eight shorthanded goals that the Devils have scored since his NHL debut. 

He’s insanely durable too, which holds tremendous value for a team with championship aspirations. He has not missed a single game since taking the ice for his NHL debut in 2021, skating in 273 consecutive contests plus all 12 playoff games in 2022-23.

Assuming last season and this season are more of who Mercer actually is at even strength, his 50.55 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is 10th among regular Devils forwards at even strength (min. 500 minutes ice time – TOI). Only Nathan Bastian and Alexander Holtz were worse. Goalies have played to a .908 save percentage (SV%) with Mercer on the ice in that span, so he’s serviceable defensively. And offensively, he doesn’t bring a ton but he averages 0.06 more expected goals per 60 minutes for than against, so he’s still a net positive (via Natural Stat Trick). And again, his durability and penalty kill work makes him even more valuable.

Mercer with wheels to the front and backhands a shorthanded goal 💨 pic.twitter.com/FaKCo7z9VC

— Devils on MSG (@DevilsMSGN) December 19, 2021

Out of 528 eligible skaters (min. 200 TOI) this season, Mercer’s 52.15 xGF% ranks 156th. He’s been on the ice for two more goals for than against, and high-danger chances are 74-62 in favor of the Devils when he’s on the ice. So again, nothing groundbreaking, but certainly not a liability by any means.

Some people may say “Well, what if he goes back to his success from 2022-23!?” Anything could happen, but it seems unlikely. The reasoning behind that is in 2022-23, ten of his 56 points came from the man advantage, which is double what he’s notched in any other season. But the Devils’ power play was about average that season and would have benefitted from having someone more capable in Mercer’s role.

In contrast, Stefan Noesen already has nine power play points this season – meaning he’s picking up points 272% more frequently than Mercer’s best season on the man advantage. Mercer now plays on the second unit instead of the top. So while that may have slightly inflated Mercer’s totals two seasons ago, it isn’t what is best for the Devils as a team.

Furthermore, most of his production that season was from a wildly hot stretch of 12 games in February and March, where he notched 20 points in 12 games. He shot at a ~24% clip, including two of those games where his only shot on goal went in. It wasn’t sustainable. Just for context, here are the point paces for Mercer that season:

• Oct. 13, 2022 – Feb. 14, 2023: 0.547 P/GP
• Feb. 16, 2023 – March 11, 2023: 1.67 P/GP (!!)
• March 12, 2023 – April 13, 2023: 0.411 P/GP

Sure, an already talented Devils team would be even better if Mercer became a consistent 30-goal scorer. But that doesn’t mean he can’t remain a key part of a team with championship aspirations. 

If you’re a Devils fan – are you willing to come to terms with Mercer being a successful bottom-sixer? Or do you still expect more? Let us know in the comments.