Dear Santa: Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2024-25 Wish List – The Hockey Writers Tampa Bay Lightning Latest News, Analysis & More

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been surging lately, with a record of 16-10-2, they are sitting in the first Eastern Conference wild-card spot. The Lightning have played 28 games and have games in hand on teams ahead of them. In other words, the next few weeks will be critical to getting ahead in the standings. If the Lightning win their next few games, they can jump to second place in the Atlantic Division.

With the season of giving around the corner, what three gifts should the Lightning wish for from Santa Claus?

Gift One: A Healthy Defense Core

Despite excellent play from the team in recent games, the Lightning defense has been hit with the injury bug again. Like the 2023-24 season, multiple Lightning defenders have missed time simultaneously, including captain Victor Hedman, J.J. Moser, and Erik Cernak, who have all been in and out of the lineup.

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With the Lightning’s top defensive pairing out of the lineup, many anticipated they would struggle. Instead, their blue-line depth has stepped up, and injuries have allowed players like Darren Raddysh, Nick Perbix, and Emil Lilleberg to showcase their abilities.

Atop the Lightning’s Christmas wish list should be for a healthy back end down the stretch and come playoff time. Performing at an elite level without the top pairing isn’t unusual for a few games, but maintaining that pace over a longer stretch isn’t easy.

With the trade deadline approaching, the Lightning don’t need to prioritize acquiring any defensemen to bolster the back end. The team continues to prove their depth, starting with their American Hockey League affiliate Syracuse Crunch.

Gift Two: Middle-Six Scoring Forwards

The Lightning have one of the best top-six forward groups in the NHL this season. Starting with Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel, centered by Brayden Point on the top line, followed by a trio that includes two-way stalwarts Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel, who will represent Team Canada at the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off tournament this February.

Outside the top five forwards and improved play from the fourth line, head coach Jon Cooper’s middle six could use an upgrade. Rookie Conor Geekie, who they got in the Mikhail Sergachev trade, has looked solid at just 20 years old and should remain in the lineup. The Lightning’s third line has struggled to control the pace of play at five-on-five and continues to provide a minimal scoring impact.

While a newly constructed combination of Mitchell Chaffee and Gage Goncalves, centered by Nick Paul, has played well over the past few games, the line has only registered 25 minutes of ice time together. It’s only fair to give the trio time to mesh but expect them to regress to the mean based on their overall on-ice metrics (Corsi and expected goals).

The Lightning didn’t have two lines that could score during their Stanley Cup victories, but rather three lines that could generate offense and play at both ends of the ice. Moving forward, Tampa Bay must look to add another layer of scoring.

Gift Three: Consistent Backup Goaltending

Andrei Vasilevskiy is one of the league’s best goaltenders, but he can only play so many games before fatigue and other factors hinder his performance. That’s why having a reliable backup goaltender becomes vital during an 82-game season.

The Lightning’s current backup, Jonas Johansson, hasn’t been the most serviceable option this season. Despite a decent performance to keep the team competitive to start last season, Johansson hasn’t been remotely close to that level of play recently.

Johansson ranks 55th in goals saved above expected (GSAx) via Evolving Hockey, a goaltending metric that accounts for the workload and quality of shots a netminder faces compared to the actual goals they allow. He’s also posted a .882 save percentage (Sv%) and 3.84 goals-against average (GAA).

Luckily, Johansson has looked much better in his last couple of starts, securing wins over the Nashville Predators and Seattle Kraken. The Lightning need him to continue developing so the team can lean on him when the Vasilevskiy isn’t between the pipes.

Following an up-and-down start to the 2024-25 season, the Lightning are starting to settle in. No one should count the Bolts out yet, as they still have magic left in the tank from Santa and his Elves to compete for a third Stanley Cup in five seasons.