Colorado Avalanche 2024-25 Player Projections: Nathan MacKinnon – The Hockey Writers Colorado Avalanche Latest News, Analysis & More

The Colorado Avalanche, despite their flaws, continue to be among the handful of franchises that contend for the Stanley Cup every season. Things are getting tougher, as they generally do for teams that have recently won the Stanley Cup, but the Avalanche are fortunate in one sense.

They are anchored by arguably the best player in the world right now: Nathan MacKinnon. After the best season of his career, how will MacKinnon – and the Avalanche – fare in the coming season? Let’s look back at last season and what it could mean for the season ahead.

How MacKinnon’s 2023-24 Went

What can you say about Nathan MacKinnon’s 2023-24 campaign that hasn’t been said? He may not have won the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s scoring leader – that went to Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning with 144 points – but MacKinnon did just as much, if not more.

MacKinnon finished the regular season with 51 goals, 89 assists, and 140 points – all career-highs. His efforts were good enough to earn his first Hart Memorial Trophy win. He got the Ted Lindsay Award as well, the best player in the NHL as voted on by the players.

He and Mikko Rantanen (104 points) have been one of the most dangerous duos in the NHL for years, but this may have been their best performance to date. He added 14 points in 11 playoff games, though things came to a disappointing end in the second round against the Dallas Stars.

Though the season undoubtedly ended in frustration and an earlier exit from the playoffs than desired, it’s hard to ignore the leap MacKinnon has taken. He flirted with the 100-point barrier from 2017 through 2020, finally getting over the hump with 111 points in 2022-23. But this was a season of sheer dominance from start to finish. Just as importantly, he played every game for the first time since 2018-19.

What the Team Needs From MacKinnon

How can it be possibly put into words what the Avalanche need from MacKinnon? They depend on him to drive offense, carry the power play, swing momentum, and play in the most important situations. He is one of the league’s highest-paid players because he is one of the league’s best players.

The Avalanche need that once again. At 28 years old, MacKinnon is in the prime of his career. His last two seasons have been what everyone anticipated the moment he was drafted. Injuries have intervened but the talent was always on display.

MacKinnon is now in a position to start working on his legacy. He has the production. He has some of the individual hardware. He’s already got a Cup. Now, he is obsessed with being the best player on the ice at all times. More importantly, he is obsessed with getting another championship. And the Avalanche will benefit from that drive.

2024-25 Projection

MacKinnon has been on an upward trajectory for four consecutive seasons. The wonky 2020-21 season saw him produce 65 points in 48 games. Injuries saw him tally 88 points in just 65 games during 2021-22. The past two seasons have been nothing short of incredible.

Having said that, it is hard to imagine that he will get near the totals of a season ago. Only 27 times in NHL history has a player tallied 140 points or more. Wayne Gretzky accounts for 13 of those seasons himself and the feat has been achieved by just 11 other players.

Related: 3 Best-Case Scenarios for the Colorado Avalanche in 2024-25

If everything goes right for the Avalanche, secondary scoring will take the pressure off of MacKinnon. He won’t have to dominate every single night, though his drive is so high that he will look to do exactly that anyway.

With his lethal shot, lightning-fast release, and ability to push the rush, it isn’t inconceivable to think he can better his career-best 51 goals of a season ago. Look for his assists total to come down, but something in the 55-75-130 range is not out of the question.

The “Hart” and Soul of the Franchise

If everything is going to work out for the Avalanche, it will begin and end with MacKinnon. Sure, the Avalanche need their depth to shine through and the emergence of a top prospect would be nice as well.

At the end of the day, the reigning league MVP is going to be there to carry the load. MacKinnon has been the bell cow, the heart of the franchise, for the better part of a decade. He has finally come into his substantial potential and there are few in the league who can compare.