CFP preview: Where 12-seed Clemson has an advantage over 5-seed Texas

The biggest gap in Clemson’s road trip to Texas isn’t the teams’ College Football Playoff seedings.

With Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik surging and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers struggling, the Tigers have a clear advantage at the sport’s most important position.

Clemson’s junior quarterback has arguably played his best football during the team’s last four games. Since Nov. 16, Klubnik is 87-of-134 (64.9 percent) for 1,028 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), 12 total touchdowns and one interception.

Per Pro Football Focus data, Klubnik is first among CFP quarterbacks this season with 24 “big-time throws,” which the site defines as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

He also has the most touchdown passes (33) and is tied with three other quarterbacks for the third-fewest interceptions (five). Klubnik has been particularly effective on deep passes, ranking first among playoff quarterbacks with 15 touchdowns on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

Ewers hasn’t been nearly as effective, leading to increased calls for head coach Steve Sarkisian to bench him for heralded backup five-star 2023 high-school recruit Arch Manning.

Per PFF data, he’s one of two CFP quarterbacks with at least 275 pass attempts with more turnover-worthy plays (17) than big-time throws (14), joined by Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen. Only Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been sacked more often than Ewers.

Clemson has a clear quarterback advantage, but Texas’ defense could shrink the gap. The Longhorns are tied for ninth in FBS in sacks (38), and their ability to pressure Klubnik could neutralize his strengths.

According to PFF, Klubnik has done most of his damage when kept clean, throwing for 29 touchdowns and three interceptions in those situations. However, Klubnik has been pressured at the third-highest pressure rate (30.4 percent) among CFP quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. When under duress, Klubnik is 51-of-114 (44.7 percent) for 790 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Longhorns primarily play zone defense in coverage, which CBS Sports notes benefits Klubnik. 

The Clemson quarterback “has thrown 21 touchdowns passes against zone coverage this season, the most in the FBS,” Ryan McGrady wrote.

Applying pressure could be Texas’ best way of preventing Klubnik from dissecting its zone looks.

Meanwhile, Ewers needs a hot start in Saturday’s first-round playoff game (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, TNT/Max) to keep the home fans from chanting for Manning to take his place.

Ewers had three first-half turnovers in Texas’ two losses to Georgia and might be unable to survive a sloppy start against Clemson, which forced a fumble and interception in the first quarter of its 34-31 win over SMU in the ACC Championship Game.

Manning has appeared in eight games this season, including two starts, and is 61-of-90 (67.8 percent) for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. If Ewers remains careless with the football, Sarkisian might be forced to insert Manning.

Where the Longhorns have a brewing quarterback controversy, the Tigers have stability. It’s one of the few advantages 12-seed Clemson has over 5-seed Texas, but it’s significant.