Can Winnipeg Jets maintain their historic start?

After defeating the New York Rangers Tuesday night, the Winnipeg Jets have surged to a remarkable 15-1-0 record, becoming the first team in NHL history to begin the season with 15 wins in 16 games. 

In addition to their historic start, the Jets are 7-0 on the road, rank first in goals scored per game with 4.56, and allow the fewest goals per game with 2.13.

With things clicking on all cylinders, the question remains: can Winnipeg keep it up?

While it’s unlikely they’ll end the season with a .938 points percentage, they’re still poised to run away with the President’s Trophy. They sit six points ahead of second-place New Jersey (who’s played 19 games, the most in the league). Behind New Jersey are Minnesota and Florida, both with 23 points to the Jets’ 30.

One big reason for Winnipeg’s success is its power play. It is currently operating at a league-leading 42.2%, which is on track to be the highest percentage in league history. Interestingly enough, the Jets sit at just 22nd overall with 55 regarding penalties drawn. 

The biggest factor that should tell Jets fans whether or not they can keep up this level of play might be their 5v5 offense. While they do sit ninth with 5v5 goals for per 60 (2.9), some underlying data may suggest regression. According to MoneyPuck, their expected goals for per 60 is just 19th in the league. They also have a league-leading 14.5 shooting percentage, far higher than the average of the past five league leaders, who have a percentage of 11.78, per Hockey Reference.

Lastly, the Jets’ 5v5 goals for above expected rank sixth in the league at 6.25, suggesting that perhaps they are overperforming on offense.

Defensively, Winnipeg is backstopped by their Vezina Trophy-winning goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, who leads the league in wins (13) and save percentage among those with five or more games played (.934). Given his play throughout his career, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him with those numbers all season.

This is all while the Jets rank as the 11th-worst team in shots on goal against per game, allowing an average of 29.35. They’re allowing a fair amount of scoring chances per game, 28.41, the 12th-worst in the NHL.

That said, does that mean Winnipeg won’t finish the season as the best team in the league? Not necessarily. With forwards Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers all on pace to have career years, top defenseman Josh Morrisey averaging over a point per game and 24 minutes per night and Hellebuyck once again playing at a Vezina level, Winnipeg looks to be a Stanley Cup favorite.

However, given some underlying numbers, the Jets will likely regress as the season progresses. They’ll face tough competition from their division, with Minnesota and Dallas, but with their historic start to the season, the Jets are flying high.