Can the Dallas Stars Sustain Positive Play in the New Year? – The Hockey Writers Dallas Stars Latest News, Analysis & More

The Dallas Stars begin 2025 with a 22-13-1 record, in the first wild card spot, and 10 points back of the division lead. As the season marches on, they should reach the playoffs with relative ease, but there are teams behind them in the standings who won’t sit back and let them cruise to the postseason.

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Before Christmas, the Stars were not scoring enough, their power play was brutal, and they had a tough time closing out games and stringing wins together. When the clock struck midnight on Jan. 1, the Stars were on a four-game point streak (3-0-1) and scored four-plus goals in back-to-back games, which were two of the four times they had four or more goals since Nov. 29.

The Stars seem to be trending up, but can they keep it going in the final four months of the season?

Jason Robertson’s Getting Hot at the Right Time

There seems to always be a feeling of needing more from Jason Robertson. Whether it’s more shooting, more scoring, more passing, or more defensive discipline. Whatever the topic, it always seems to be there. Over the course of two seasons, 2021-22 and 2022-23, Robertson had 87 goals and 188 points in 156 regular season games. Finally, it felt like his playing was rounding into form. Last season, those numbers dipped to 29 goals and 80 points. Listen, 80 points is nothing to sneeze at, but from a player like Robertson, the Stars expect more. The only difference last season was, with the play and presence of the now-retired Joe Pavelski and the now-injured and always-steady Tyler Seguin, the Stars cruised to a division title and their second straight Western Conference Final. With those two players out of the mix, Robertson needs to put his foot on the gas, perhaps more than ever.

Robertson started the season relatively slow after missing training camp and the preseason with an offseason foot procedure, so there is some grace to give there. He had only five goals and 13 points in the first two months of the season, which totaled 22 games. In December he has come on stronger, scoring four goals and 15 points in 14 games. More specifically, Robertson had two goals and five points in the final two games of 2024, which is as strong a finish to the calendar year as one could ask for.

There are more players than Robertson and more issues than his consistency. However, where he goes, is usually where his team goes. In the Stars’ 22 wins, he has eight goals and 23 points, and is a plus-12. In their 13 losses, he has one goal, five points, and is a minus-9. While plus/minus stats might be outdated to some, the disparity is too big to ignore. To dig a little bit deeper into the splits, he has 19 points in 20 home games, and only nine points in 16 road games. The Stars have an 8-8-0 record on the road, so it stands to reason that if he produces more outside of Texas, they will win more outside of Texas.

So can Robertson carry a strong December into 2025? I think he can, and quite frankly, he has to. Another point that has been harped on a lot, both by myself and the rest of the Dallas media, is this kid has to shoot the puck more. In 2021-22, his first 40-plus-goal season, Robertson had 2.9 shots per game. In 2022-23, he had 3.8 shots per game and scored 46 goals. Last season he had 2.8 shots per game, and right now he is sitting at 2.5 shots per game this season. This might seem overly simple, but when he shoots more, he scores more. The Stars need a lot more of that in 2025, and if they get it, they will be just fine.

Wyatt Johnston: The Straw That Stirs the Drink

On New Year’s Eve, Wyatt Johnston played his 200th career game in the NHL, and scored for the third straight game. In his last four games, he has three goals and six points. He had six goals and 12 points in 14 games in December after having only three goals and 13 points in the first 22 games of the season. Much like Robertson, Johnston’s game has really picked up heading into January.

After a 41-point rookie campaign in 2022-23, Johnston broke out last season, scoring 32 goals and 65 points. While the point production has only been picking up recently, he has had a strong season in other aspects of his game, including in the faceoff circle and his two-way play. Shooting the puck a million times has never been a part of his game, but he’s been doing that a lot more, too. Through the first 36 games of the season, he is averaging 2.8 shots per game which is the highest clip of his career.

Johnston’s ice time is up to 19:14 per game, the highest average of his young career, which speaks to a couple things. Number one, it has to do with his prominent role on special teams. Number two, it’s the way in which coach Peter Deboer has been using him up and down the lineup. What started as a demotion, of sorts, to the third line, has now turned into the realization that Johnston can play anywhere the team needs him.

Stars Need More Road Success in 2025

Towards the beginning of this article, we spoke about the difference in Robertson’s play on the road vs. how he plays at home. To be fair, the same can be said for the Stars as a whole. Through 20 games at the American Airlines Center, the Stars are 14-5-1. They have scored 66 goals while allowing only 45, and their penalty kill is a magnificent 91.5%. The power play isn’t so great, but we’ll talk more about that later.

When you see how positive their play has been at home, it really is crazy how a team of this caliber can be so mediocre on the road, especially since they were 26-10-5 last season. Through the first three months of the season, the Stars have only two fewer losses on the road than all of last season with an 8-8-0 record. They have scored only 49 goals and allowed 46 and their PK dips down to 78.4%. The PP is actually quite good, 21.4%, but again, we’ll talk more about that later.

Much like Robertson, almost every player’s production has dipped away from Dallas, but maybe none more notable than goaltender Jake Oettinger. At home, Oettinger is a sparkling 12-4-1, on the road he is 5-5-0. In Dallas, he has a .917 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.15 goals-against average (GAA). On the road, those numbers dip down to .896 and 2.80 respectively. There’s more that goes into this than just Oettingers play. The Stars are not scoring enough either. But when you watch the games, it’s noticeable that he’s just not as comfortable in opponents’ arenas as he has been in seasons past. Over the course of his career, Oettinger has statistically been a better goaltender on the road, as odd as that may be, so I have no doubt he is capable of turning that around in 2025.

Final Thoughts

To answer the question in the title of this article, yes, the Stars can absolutely sustain their strong finish to 2024. They’ve had to adjust to life without Joe Pavelski and Tyler Seguin, and they haven’t been able to consistently win on the road. I believe they will continue to figure out both of those things as the season progresses. Oettinger is one of the best goaltenders in the world, so there’s no reason to think his play won’t get stronger and more consistent.

The one thing we haven’t spoken about fully yet is the special teams. If you’ve read my work over the last month, you know that the special teams are a hot-button topic amongst the media and fans alike, and rightfully so. The Stars’ PP is ranked 28th in the league at 15.3% and their PK is third at 84.7%. It’s obvious which one needs to improve. While the rest of their team stats ticked upward in December, the PP dropped to 10.4%. They’re getting opportunities and they’re getting shots on net, they just haven’t been able to finish. In order for the Stars to move up in the standings the special teams need to balance out.

In closing, the Stars are still a Stanley Cup threat, and should be treated as such. That being said, the final three months of the season won’t be as easy-breathing as it was over the past few seasons. Currently, the Colorado Avalanche are third in the Central with 46 points, one point up on the Stars. The Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Louis, and Utah Hockey Club are all below the Stars but are within five points. Moreover, once they get to the playoffs, there is an argument that all eight teams are a legitimate threat to go on a long playoff run. There’s still time, but the kinks need to be worked out soon, because there’s no time to fix it once the real battle, the playoffs, begin.