Can Lando Norris win the 2024 Formula 1 championship?

Can Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 championship? 

Yes, he can. But will he? No he won’t, and here’s why. 

As things currently stand, championship leader Max Verstappen has 331 points and Norris is 52 points behind with 279. There are six races left this season: Austin, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Of those six races Austin, Brazil and Qatar are sprint races.

If by some miracle Norris was able to win every remaining race, finish first in each of the sprint races AND get the fastest lap each weekend he would accrue 180 points in total. Clearly the odds of that happening are extremely low despite being theoretically possible. If Verstappen were to finish second in every race, including the sprints, without getting any fastest laps he would earn 129 points. That’s a difference of 51 points, one point short of the gap. Do you see the problem?

Even if Norris is perfect for the rest of the season, the championship is not in his control. Not only are Norris’ championship hopes reliant on the performance of Verstappen, but teams like Ferrari and Mercedes have their moments, and each is a threat to take points away from Verstappen and Norris, as is Norris’ own teammate, Oscar Piastri. 

While McLaren are the team to beat right now, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be by the time cars hit the track in Austin. Teams like Red Bull and Mercedes are bringing significant upgrade packages to Austin to try to fix the problems they have been having. Mercedes and Ferrari were quick around Austin last year, so either team could spoil the party for Verstappen and Norris.

Norris’ biggest hope in winning the championship relies on having a bit of luck come his way, which we all know in sports doesn’t always happen. Norris needs Verstappen to make a rare mistake or have reliability issues like he did in Australia, and if that were to happen Norris needs to be the one capitalizing, not his teammate Piastri. 

Norris needs to avoid making mistakes himself, like losing positions on lap one and almost clipping a wall while leading the Singapore Grand Prix by 30 seconds. If he wants to take the title, his best odds rely on Verstappen having at least one extremely bad weekend or even a DNF. 

Ultimately the 2024 Formula 1 season is coming down to an exhilarating finish, which is great news for fans and the sport as a whole. For the first time since 2021 we’re witnessing a genuine title fight as the season winds down following two years of Verstappen and Red Bull’s dominance. 

While Norris might not quite be able to get over the hump this season, at least a pathway is there and we have some drama down the stretch. So buckle up because this season is far from over and anything can happen in Formula 1.