Breaking down the candidates for the AL Cy Young

After we find out the winner of the New York Yankees-Los Angeles Dodgers World Series, MLB’s award season begins.

Here’s a breakdown of candidates for the AL Cy Young, which will be awarded in November, from least to most likely to win. Per DraftKings as of Friday, these are the top candidates. 

RHP Corbin Burnes | Baltimore Orioles

His season: Burnes came to Baltimore in a trade over the offseason with one Cy Young Award and three additional top-eight finishes over a dominant four-year stretch with the Milwaukee Brewers. His first season in the American League didn’t disappoint. Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA (fourth in AL). The Orioles made the playoffs for the second straight season, and Burnes was a big reason why.

His outlook: Only seven pitchers have won a Cy Young in each league. Of those seven, five are already in the Hall of Fame, and the other two — Max Scherzer and Blake Snell — are still active and thus not eligible yet. Burnes is only 30, so he could join that Cy Young club. But it probably won’t happen this season. 

LHP Cole Ragans | Kansas City Royals

His season: Unlike Burnes, an established star long before 2024, Ragans burst on the scene to put together one of the best seasons of any AL starter. In just his third season — he spent much of 2023 as a reliever with the Texas Rangers before being traded to Kansas City — Ragans became a formidable lefty. He went 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA. Per Baseball Reference, Ragans’ Wins Above Replacement was 4.9, third among AL starters.

His outlook: As good as Ragans was this season and as good a story as his emergence is, it’s hard to see him winning the Cy Young when his odds (+5,000) aren’t even the best on his own team.

RHP Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals

His season: Lugo’s 5.3 WAR is ahead of Ragans and second among AL starters. The 34-year-old had the season of his life, going 16-9 with a 3 ERA. He and Ragans helped the Royals go from 106 losses in 2023 to the playoffs.

His outlook: Aside from one man, Lugo was the best starter in the American League this season. Unfortunately for Lugo, that one man is the odds-on favorite. 

RHP Emmanuel Clase | Cleveland Guardians

His season: Clase’s postseason performance (6.35 ERA in ALDS, 15.43 in ALCS) underwhelmed. But the Cy Young — and MVP, Rookie of the Year, etc.— are regular-season honors. Clase had one of the best regular seasons ever for a reliever. In 74.1 innings, he allowed five earned runs. Absolute dominance.

His outlook: The fact that Clase is still just +2,500 despite how dominant he was shows how hard it is for a reliever to win the Cy Young. Only nine relievers have won a Cy Young Award, with Eric Gagne of the Dodgers being the last to do it in 2003. So it’s an uphill battle, and what makes it even more difficult for Clase is how good the AL’s best starter was in 2024.

LHP Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers

His season: Before 2024, no pitcher had won a “Triple Crown” over a full season since 2011. Skubal— and Chris Sale of the NL’s Atlanta Braves — each accomplished that feat this season. With 18 wins, 228 strikeouts and a 2.39 ERA, Skubal was the best of the best among AL starters and may have been the best anywhere in baseball. 

His outlook: Skubal’s Cy Young odds are -5000. Yeah, he’s probably going to win.