Breaking down the 2024 American League MVP race

While youth is certainly being served among the favorites for American League Most Valuable Player, a powerful veteran may take home the prize again.

According to the odds posted by BetMGM, this year’s race for the AL MVP could come down to four players who all helped their teams make the postseason. So, who are those four players? Let’s look at the candidates from least likely winner to most likely winner.

SS Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles

His season: After winning AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2023, Henderson settled into the full-time shortstop role with the Orioles in 2024. With the move came higher production at the plate as Henderson slashed .281/.364/.529 with 37 homers and 92 RBI on his way to earning his first-ever All-Star Game appearance. His 9.1 bWAR paced the Orioles and was the fourth-highest of any MLB player.

His outlook: Henderson showed he could shake off thoughts of a sophomore slump. Now he and the Orioles must figure out how to get deeper into the postseason.

OF Juan Soto | New York Yankees

His season: The Yankees put the rest of MLB on notice by trading for Soto at the Winter Meetings, and the 25-year-old slugger lived up to expectations in the Bronx. Soto slashed .288/.419/.569 with 41 homers and 109 RBI and scored an AL-high 128 runs, thanks partly to his propensity to draw walks. His OPS+ of 178 was a career-high in seasons where he played over 100 games.

His outlook: Expected to become a free agent at season’s end, what comes next for Soto will be one of the offseason’s most intriguing storylines. Wherever he plays in 2025, Soto will command a hefty price after showing not even New York’s bright lights faze him.

SS Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals

His season: After inking Witt to an 11-year, $288.8 million extension in February, the Royals got an immediate return on their investment in 2024. The 24-year-old led all MLB players with a .332 batting average and 211 hits, finishing second with 9.4 bWAR. Witt was the catalyst behind Kansas City’s turnaround this season, propelling them from last place in the AL Central in 2023 to a berth in the 2024 Division Series. 

His outlook: The sky is the limit for Witt, who has proven he can be the face of a franchise, even at a young age. While he likely won’t win MVP honors this season, there is no question he will be in the running for the award for years to come.

OF Aaron Judge | New York Yankees

His season: When Judge earned the AL MVP in 2022, he did it by leading the league in OPS, OPS+, total bases and RBI (among other statistics). This year, Judge topped each of those impressive 2022 stats, building upon his Hall of Fame resume. The 32-year-old Judge showed he was indeed in his prime this season, pacing all MLB players with 58 homers, 144 RBI, 133 walks and an OPS+ of 223.

His outlook: At -5000 (per BetMGM) to win the AL MVP, Judge is an overwhelming favorite to win the honor again. There is little doubt that Judge is the heart and soul of the Yankees, no matter who else joins him in the lineup.