Analyzing the Pittsburgh Penguins’ early-season struggles

Soon after, center Lars Eller was shipped to the Washington Capitals for a third and fifth-round pick in the 2027 NHL Draft.

What exactly is plaguing the Penguins this season? For starters, it doesn’t help that they are the fourth oldest team in the league with an average age of 28.6, and the team’s core features three 35-plus players in Crosby (37), Evgeni Malkin (38) and Kris Letang (37). Past the team age, however, they are struggling in a handful of key areas.

Defensive struggles

Pittsburgh is currently allowing the second-most goals against per game, with a whopping 3.83 average, and the third-most shots against with 32.7. They also have the second-worst goal differential with a -22 mark.

Analytically, according to MoneyPuck, they are also the second worst in 5v5 expected goals against and 5v5 goals against above expected. All this points to clear defensive issues that are not helped out by poor goaltending.

Failed by goaltending

After a poor start to the season, presumed starter Tristan Jarry was loaned to Pittsburgh’s AHL team to find his game. In three starts, Jarry posted a .836 save percentage and 5.47 goals against average. Backup Joel Blomqvist fared better, with a .904 save percentage, but was recently pulled in the Dallas game after allowing three goals on eight shots. With Jarry back from his AHL stint, Blomqvist was sent to the AHL. 

Finally, Alex Nedeljkovic, who has played in the most games for the Penguins this season, has also had a poor showing. In eight total games, he has just a .884 save percentage.

According to MoneyPuck, the Penguins goaltending has been at the bottom of the league, ranked 30th in 5v5 expected save percentage on unblocked shots and 5v5 save percentage above expected. 

Offense is the silver lining?

Interestingly enough, Pittsburgh’s offense is probably what is keeping them from being the worst team in the league. Although their goals for per game is only 21st in the league, they’re averaging the fifth-most shots in the league with 31.5 per game. Their top line of Crosby, Malkin and Rickard Rakell is also producing; Crosby has 17 points in 18 games, Malkin 18 in 18 and Rakell 11 in 18.

The Penguins’ 5v5 expected goals for is also at the top of the league, suggesting that while their power play remains middle of the pack at just over 18 percent, their 5v5 offense is not to be of concern. With their 5v5 high-danger chances per 60 at third in the league, the main question offensively for Pittsburgh is whether or not they can turn these offensive chances into more goals. 

Overall, the consensus seems to be that the Penguins are likely not playoff contenders for the 2024-25 season. While it’s tough to set up a rebuild when you have all-time greats like Crosby and Malkin, they may be better off selling high on some of their assets and attempting a quick retool to get their stars one more shot at a Stanley Cup.