All hail the AL Central, MLB’s most surprising division

When the American League Division Series kicks off on Saturday, three of the remaining four teams hunting for the AL pennant will represent the AL Central. The division, often ranked at the bottom of MLB’s six divisions in terms of toughness before the season began, is guaranteed to have at least one team make the American League Championship Series.

It’s a surprising turn of events for a division that many overlooked to begin the campaign. Look back to FanGraphs’ postseason odds before the season began. The Minnesota Twins, the reigning division champions, were once again the pick to take the AL Central, given a 65.3 percent chance to get to the playoffs. The other four teams had no better than a 33.4 percent shot at playing meaningful October baseball.

Yet here we are on the first Saturday of October preparing to watch the Cleveland Guardians take on the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals meeting the New York Yankees in the two best-of-five ALDS series. Cleveland, by the way, was that team with the 33.4 percent chance at the start of the season. Detroit and Kansas City had a 28.1 and 13.2 percent chance, respectively.

So how did the Central become the juggernaut of the AL side of the bracket? Each team took a different path to reach this point of the season.

Under first-year manager Stephen Vogt, Cleveland has relied on a bullpen that had an ERA that was tied for the second-best in MLB this season (a combined 3.61) and had another MVP-like season from Jose Ramirez, who paced the team in RBI (118), home runs (39), doubles (39), stolen bases (41) and OPS (.872). The Guardians were also a force at home, going an AL-best 50-30 inside Progressive Field.

Their ALDS opponent, the Detroit Tigers, went on a late-season run, posting an MLB-best 31-13 record from Aug. 11 through the end of the regular season to grab the AL’s sixth seed. Detroit’s pitching was one of the biggest surprises of the MLB season, with the staff combining for a 3.61 ERA, which ranked tied for second in the AL and tied for second among all MLB teams. Also, Detroit went 43-38 on the road this season (the franchise’s most wins away from the Motor City since posting 45 in 2014).

In Kansas City, the Royals have been building for this moment since the middle of the 2023 season when they acquired starting pitcher Cole Hamels in a trade-deadline deal from the Texas Rangers. In the offseason, the Royals completely revamped their roster from a team that went 56-106 and finished last in the division, with just seven of the players from the previous season returning for 2024. Those bold moves paid off, as did the early returns on the massive extension given to Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of the season as he turned in a season for the ages.

It’s been a season to remember for each of these three surprising AL Central teams, and there are still more chapters to write in what has been a storybook season in Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City.