AFC players projected to feast down the stretch

With Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup following a concussion, the Miami Dolphins have won three straight games. But who else will feast down the stretch?

Ahead of Thanksgiving Day games and the rest of the Week 13 schedule, Yardbarker NFL writers project who will stay on a roll in the AFC.

AFC East

BUFFALO BILLS (9-2) | QB Josh Allen | The MVP front-runner through the first 12 weeks of the season, Allen ranks third in the NFL in QBR (73.2), fifth in total touchdowns (23) and averages 259.9 combined passing and rushing yards. According to Tankathon, Buffalo has the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, so Allen will have several opportunities to strengthen his MVP candidacy. The return from injuries of pass-catchers Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman will help.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-6) | QB Tua Tagovailoa | Since returning from a concussion in Week 8, Tagovailoa has made the $212 million extension he signed in the offseason look like a bargain, posting an NFL-high 76.5% completion rate with 1,277 yards passing, 11 TD passes and one interception. Even though the weather is getting colder, Tagovailoa should continue performing like the league’s most accurate quarterback because he has just two games remaining against teams with winning records.

NEW YORK JETS (3-8) | RB Breece Hall | A bright spot in an otherwise miserable season, Hall is one of just 11 players with 1,000 yards from scrimmage (1,033) and ranks third among tailbacks in receptions (46). The 2022 second-rounder has hit his stride over his past six games, averaging the fourth-most yards in the NFL (114.7), and if he maintains a similar efficiency level, Hall could finish with a career-high 1,700 all-purpose yards.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-9) | TE Hunter Henry | Henry has been New England’s top pass-catcher, ranking first on the team in receptions (51) and receiving yards (535). He is at his best when QB Drake Maye feeds him the ball. In Maye’s seven starts, Henry has 49 targets, the fourth most among tight ends. The former Arkansas Razorback should continue to be productive because the Patriots will likely trail during every remaining contest. — Colum Dell

AFC West

DENVER BRONCOS (7-5) | Edge-rusher Nik Bonitto | Through 12 games, Bonitto has 10 sacks. The third-year pass-rusher is the first Bronco to reach this mark since Von Miller (14.5) and Bradley Chubb (12) in 2018. Expect him to keep rocking in Monday’s home game against the Browns, who have allowed the league’s most sacks (47).

 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-1) | QB Patrick Mahomes | The two-time MVP should enter the zone in Friday’s home game against Vegas, which ranks 29th in the league in points allowed (28.5 PPG). Mahomes is 11-2 and has posted an outstanding 108.5 passer rating in 13 regular-season games against the Raiders, per Stathead.

 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-9) | TE Brock Bowers | The 2024 No. 13 overall pick has the league’s second-most receptions (74 in 11 games) and is one of few bright spots for the Raiders. In Friday’s road game, he could devour Kansas City’s slumping defense, which has allowed 511 passing yards over its past two games.

 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7-4) | QB Justin Herbert | Herbert is averaging a career-low 218.5 passing yards per game, but head coach Jim Harbaugh should let him air it out more in Sunday’s road game against the Falcons, who rank 26th in the league in passing yards allowed (229.9). — Clark Dalton

AFC North

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-3) | LB T.J. Watt | Watt has something to prove after Browns defensive end Myles Garrett outplayed him in Week 12 and declared, “I’m No. 1. … I’m the guy. It’s still me.” With beatable offensive lines in the Bengals (twice) and Browns left on the schedule, Watt will have his eyes on the Defensive Player of the Year award, an honor he earned in 2021.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-4) | RB Derrick Henry | As the weather turns colder for much of the country, “Tractorcito” season starts to heat up. Henry is averaging 89.6 rushing yards per game in December for his career, and he needs 675 more rushing yards to hit 2,000 for the second time.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-7) | RB Chase Brown | Brown has racked up 394 total yards and two touchdowns in three games since Zack Moss hit injured reserve, which made Bengals fans wonder why he wasn’t the starter to begin the season. The Illinois product could put up monster stat lines against the Cowboys, Titans and Browns down the stretch.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-8) | WR Jerry Jeudy | No one probably was happier to see Jameis Winston take over as Cleveland’s starting QB job than Jeudy, who has 24 catches for 379 yards and a touchdown over the past four games. Jeudy needs just 328 more receiving yards over the last six games to set a career-high for receiving yards in a season (973), and he should get there in this pass-heavy offense. — Jack Dougherty

AFC South

HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5) | WR Nico Collins | Collins, who led the NFL with 567 receiving yards before suffering a Week 5 hamstring injury, has re-established himself as one of the league’s top wideouts since his Week 11 return. Over his past two games, Collins amassed 146 yards receiving and scored a touchdown. (He had a 77-yard TD negated by a penalty.) His success should continue with matchups against the NFL’s two worst pass defenses (Jacksonville Week 13, Baltimore Week 17) left.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-7) | WR Michael Pittman Jr. | Despite having just 508 receiving yards this season, Pittman appears to finally be building a connection with Anthony Richardson since the second-year quarterback returned to the lineup. Pittman is the 15th-most-targeted wideout in the league over the past two games and should continue to be peppered with targets now that Josh Downs (shoulder) is expected to miss time.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-9) | Edge-rusher Josh Hines-Allen | It has been a disappointing season for Hines-Allen, who only has five sacks in 11 games after collecting a career-high 17.5 sacks in 2023, which earned him a five-year, $150 million extension. Still, the two-time Pro Bowler can turn things around in the coming weeks, as he’ll face the Titans (twice), Raiders and Texans, all of whom have allowed at least 38 sacks this season.

TENNESSEE TITANS (3-8) | RB Tony Pollard | Pollard was underwhelming for the Cowboys in 2023 but has enjoyed an impressive bounce-back season in Tennessee, racking up the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL (800) and four touchdowns. The 27-year-old shouldn’t slow down anytime soon because each of his five remaining opponents ranks inside the top 12 in most rushing yards per game allowed. — Colum Dell