4 Maple Leafs Exceeding Expectations in 2024-25 – The Hockey Writers Toronto Maple Leafs Latest News, Analysis & More

The NHL All-Star Game is typically viewed as the unofficial halfway mark of the season, making it the perfect time to examine how players and teams have performed before the campaign’s final stretch. The 4 Nations Face-Off has replaced the All-Star festivities in 2024-25, but the break in the action will serve nicely for the same purpose of reflection. 

The Toronto Maple Leafs sit ninth in the league with a 33-20-2 record and rank ninth overall in points percentage (.618). There have been ups and downs, but the team has performed well for the most part and could win the Atlantic Division title for the first time. The organization has gone without a division crown since being the king of the all-Canadian North Division in 2020-21 amid travel restrictions in a COVID-shortened 56-game season. 

Several players have been excellent in 2024-25, and they must continue to fulfill their responsibilities after the break to set the team up nicely ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In a contract year, Mitch Marner has stood out for the right reasons, and William Nylander has been outstanding offensively. The goal-scoring pace for Auston Matthews is down, but he is second on the team in points per game despite playing through a lingering injury. However, they are expected to produce and have satisfied those expectations. John Tavares could be on either side of the argument, but a bounce-back performance for the pending unrestricted free agent was a more than reasonable outcome. As a result, the aforementioned members of the Maple Leafs’ core group are out of the equation from the discussion, and the focus will be on the performances of some other players of note. 

Stolarz Shines Between the Pipes

Anthony Stolarz signed a two-year, $5 million contract with the Maple Leafs last summer to provide the team with a depth option in the crease. He wanted to prove he could transition from being a backup to a starter. The 31-year-old netminder has arguably been the steal of free agency while showing the swagger and skill of a No. 1. Through 18 appearances this season, he has posted a 10-5-2 record with one shutout, a 2.08 goals-against average (GAA), and a .929 save percentage (SV%).  

His 24-game absence due to a knee injury may cost him some votes for the Vezina Trophy, but he has been among the league’s best goaltenders this campaign and was excellent in his return to the lineup versus the Seattle Kraken. Among goalies with at least 18 starts, he ranks first in SV%, second in GAA, and has the fourth-fewest power-play goals against. He also sits sixth in the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. 

Stolarz and Joseph Woll have been integral to the team’s success this season. They should split starts down the stretch, and it will be interesting to see who sees more action in the postseason. Both goaltenders are capable and worthy of carrying the load, but the decision for Game 1 will likely depend on whoever is hotter down the stretch. 

McCabe Demonstrates Versatility and Stability

Chris Tanev has lived up to expectations during his first season with the Maple Leafs. As advertised, his puck-moving ability, propensity to block shots, and high hockey IQ have been exceptional. An argument that Tanev has exceeded expectations exists, but the evolution of Jake McCabe has been a pleasant surprise. The 31-year-old McCabe has been a great fit since being acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks in 2022-23. He has added much-needed physicality to Toronto’s defence corps and had a career season in 2023-24. 

McCabe’s average ice time has increased this campaign, as have his defensive-zone starts. His versatility has come into focus, shifting from his natural position on the left side to occupying the right for stretches. However, when the team wants to hold a lead or maintain a shutdown presence on the ice, McCabe and Tanev have become the go-to pairing for the coaching staff. During his absences due to injuries, McCabe’s importance to the team has been evident. He received a five-year contract extension in late October and remains a solid value defender for the Maple Leafs while chewing up minutes in a top-four role. 

Knies Enjoying a Career Season

Matthew Knies has 21 goals and 36 points through 51 appearances, reaching new highs offensively in both categories. The 22-year-old forward has showcased his creativity with the puck and has been more willing to get his hands dirty around the net. Knies has utilized his 6-foot-3, 227-pound frame to win puck battles and gain positioning in front of the opposition goal. He has found another gear in his sophomore season and could earn a significant pay raise as a restricted free agent. 

Related: Predicting Matthew Knies’ Next Contract with the Maple Leafs

Knies has benefited from playing alongside Matthews and Marner on the top line. The trio has dictated the pace when they have been together, posting 55.82 percent of the Corsi, 55.11 percent of the shots, 56.76 percent of the goals, 61.32 percent of the scoring chances, 64.89 percent of the high-danger chances, and 70.00 percent of the high-danger goals. 

McMann Showcases Upside as Power Forward

Similarly to Knies, Bobby McMann has brought additional scoring punch and some physical play to the forward group of the Maple Leafs in 2024-25. The 28-year-old McMann revealed flashes of his upside last season, scoring 15 goals, 24 points, 118 shots and 117 hits across 56 outings. He has surpassed his goal, point and shot totals in 2024-25 and is trending toward a 27-goal, 40-point season. McMann has averaged only 14:50 of ice time per game, making his production all the more impressive. He has played well in the top six and saw time on the first power-play unit but has mostly skated as a bottom-six winger. 

McMann has become a valuable depth scorer for the Maple Leafs. He can play anywhere in the top nine, score off the rush, and lean on opponents in a forechecking capacity. He has become an irreplaceable member of the bottom six. 

Maintaining Momentum Ahead of Trade Deadline and the Playoffs

Toronto is back in action on Saturday (Feb. 22) against the Carolina Hurricanes in the team’s first home game since Jan. 29 versus the Minnesota Wild. Afterward, the Maple Leafs return to the road for another four-game trip. 

The top guns will be relied upon to extend their success, while the emerging players discussed above will look to continue their strong showings. The March 7 trade deadline is fast approaching, and the Maple Leafs will evaluate the roster for potential adjustments ahead of Craig Berube’s first playoffs behind the bench with the organization. 

Analytics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.