3 Potential Pivots for the Maple Leafs if Marner Goes – The Hockey Writers Toronto Maple Leafs Latest News, Analysis & More

The Toronto Maple Leafs will do their best to sign Mitch Marner to a contract extension. However, without a deal in place and with a rising salary cap, several analysts and insiders have projected that Marner’s next deal will be costly. With speculation that the camp may seek a contract exceeding Auston Matthews’ $13.25 million AAV, signing an extension with their top right-winger is not a guarantee. If Toronto ultimately decides not to re-sign Marner, general manager Brad Treliving will need to determine if he should look at a trade ahead of the deadline or run with Marner on the team, then hope to replace him in the summer.

Both come with risks, but the first option gives the Leafs a chance to acquire assets and not lose the player for no return in free agency.

Looking at both potential scenarios, here are a couple of pivot options Toronto can explore.

Pursue Mikko Rantanen in Trade, Try to Sign As a UFA

If Marner elects to test the market, the highest-profile winger the Maple Leafs could pursue is Mikko Rantanen. NHL insider Elliotte Friedman does believe the Hurricanes will make a significant offer, but also suggested that several teams will show interest in Rantanen if he’s not a long-term fit with the Carolina Hurricanes. If the Canes flip Rantanen at the trade deadline, Toronto could practically plug and play Rantanen on the roster.

Acquiring Rantanen in a trade before attempting to sign him offers a key advantage: the Leafs could negotiate an eight-year extension instead of seven, lowering his annual cap hit. With Chicago already retaining salary and Carolina potentially retaining salary in a deal, the Leafs could get Rantanen at a reduced cost for the remainder of the season while setting themselves up to make additional deadline moves.

Rantanen is a bonafide star. He plays a different game style than Marner, but he could fill the void left by Marner’s departure.

Trade for Noah Dobson to Strengthen the Blue Line

Rather than replacing Marner with another high-profile forward, the Leafs could pivot and add a legitimate defenseman. It’s not a given that the New York Islanders want to make a trade, but Noah Dobson‘s name is out there.

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Dobson, at 25 years old, is the kind of player the Leafs can build around. He has the potential to be a future cornerstone defenseman, and the Leafs could aggressively pursue Dobson by offering a package that includes Marner or other high-value assets such as their 2026 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick, and prospects like Fraser Minten or Nick Robertson.

If the Islanders like the idea of trading for Marner and trying to sign him as a free agent in 2025, there aren’t many more prominent names the Islanders could land in a Dobson deal.

This kind of trade means reprioritizing where the Leafs spend their money, reallocating cap space away from a high-priced forward, and investing in a young, elite defenseman. That said, Dobson is a $4 million defenseman and a pending RFA. Moving out Marner’s salary and bringing in Dobson’s gives the Leafs room to make other deals. There’s potential for an even bigger trade with the Islanders, one that could include Brock Nelson or Kyle Palmieri.

There are certainly downsides to a move like this, not the least of which is that Dobson is currently out of action with a week-to-week injury.

Replace Marner by Committee

Instead of pursuing a star replacement, the Leafs could opt to sign multiple forwards to replace Marner’s production. This strategy would allow Toronto to spread out how they use their cap space without sacrificing the team’s overall offensive production.

Several right-wingers, including Brock Boeser, Patrick Kane, and Palmieri, could be available in free agency. While none of these players individually match Marner’s production, the sum of their contributions might bring the Leafs the scoring they need.

Boeser, at 27, is one of the more intriguing forwards who could be available on the market. He is a top-six winger who could slot into Toronto’s lineup at around $5 million less than Marner will cost. Kane, who is productive but admittedly past his prime, could be a more cost-effective option. Palmieri, known for his consistent goal-scoring, could provide depth at an affordable price.

Ideally, the Leafs and Marner get a new contract signed. However, if the two sides cannot agree on an extension before March 7th, Toronto has a decision to make. Whether they target an elite talent like Rantanen, refocus on improving their defense with Dobson, or wait until the summer and try to sign several forwards, things could get interesting.