Flagg continues to get better with each passing month for Duke and seems to have gained some separation from the field in the last few weeks because of it. Flagg’s versatility and the totality of his overall impact have been off the charts, and if the shooting and self-creation keep trending in the right direction, he could end up being the runaway favorite for the No. 1 pick.
He was playing at an incredibly high level at the end of the calendar year but has recently been hampered by illness. The key with Harper is the shooting. If he’s making 3-pointers, it unlocks so much else because of his size, strength, length and natural instincts with the ball in his hands — and he was 15 for 32 from behind the arc in December.
There’s an increasingly wide range of opinions on Bailey, which is somewhat ironic considering he fits the athletic jumbo wing archetype that is in such high demand and also has some real shot-making to match. The concerns, which are the same as they were in high school, are based on his shot selection, decision-making, lack of rim pressure for such an athlete, and overall inconsistency.
It took him a few weeks to adapt to college basketball, but he’s been playing at a very high level since the end of November. Jakucionis has backcourt size, skill, craft, a knack for operating out of ball screens, and on- and off-ball versatility. His high turnover rate is a bit of a concern, while scouts are still evaluating how well his defensive footspeed will translate.
This is where it gets very uncertain. Edgecombe hasn’t played like the top-five prospect advertised just yet, but his athleticism, competitiveness and defensive upside are undeniable. He’s 9 for 21 from behind the arc in his last five games. If he can keep that pace and eliminate some of those offensive no-show nights (four points vs. Gonzaga, two vs. New Orleans, four vs. Iowa State), he could appeal to someone like Danny Ainge.
Knueppel is skilled, he can score, and there are times when he’s been Duke’s primary facilitator and initiator. He’s also exceeded expectations defensively, albeit surrounded by college basketball’s best defense. The shooting is going to keep ticking up, and if he measures anywhere near his listed height, that’s just one more box he’ll check.
The biggest hiccup in Portland’s rebuilding plans is that Scoot Henderson hasn’t been anywhere near as good as expected through the first season-and-a-half. Picking Demin, who looks like the best passer in the draft but has inconsistent shooting and individual offense, gives them a contingency plan while simultaneously allowing them a look at playing the two lead guards together.
Georgia
• Fr
• 6’11”
/ 220 lbs
PPG
15.4
RPG
6.8
APG
1.1
3P%
28.1%
This is, admittedly, a little higher for Newell than I’m comfortable with, but he fits an archetype that OKC could value as a southpaw big who can, potentially, stretch the floor with his shooting and as a lob threat and simultaneously bring some defensive versatility.
This too may be higher than most have McNeeley at this point, but he’s again proven to be more than just a shooter this year, as he can make decisions and facilitate some within the flow of offense. He’s out now with an ankle injury but needs to prove he’s a solid enough defender that he won’t be targeted at the next level.
Every pick San Antonio makes should be about what’s best around Wemby, and Johnson has some shot-making and scoring punch that could help lighten the load for the sophomore sensation. If the Spurs think they can get him to buy into being a more willing ball-mover, cutter and defender, this pick could make a lot of sense.
Saraf may end up being the best international player (as in non-college basketball player) in this draft, which was not the expectation just a few months ago. The southpaw has the requisite feel to play in Golden State’s system but needs to figure out the shooting.
If the Spurs look to solidify the point guard spot, Fland gives them the shooting necessary to space the floor around Wemby. He’s added an extra dimension of burst to his game this year and proven he’s capable of creating for others. Building up his body will be a requisite to withstanding the physicality of the next level.
The Rockets have arguably more young pieces than any franchise in the league, with essentially all five positions covered. While Maluach is admittedly still a project, particularly on the offensive end, he’d provide a complement to Alperen Sengun as a backup with size and length who can rim run, block shots, and move reasonably well laterally.
Traore came into this draft cycle billed as a top-five pick but has not had a good season thus far in France. He’s still a high-upside swing with solid size, very good speed, and real playmaking instincts for a lead guard. Defense, shooting and ball security are the swing skills that could impact his stock in the coming months.
Essengue is one of the youngest players in the draft. He’s viewed as a highly versatile defender who needs to define his translatable offense, but still has a way of impacting the game without needing significant offensive volume. If Julius Randle isn’t in Minnesota past this year, the Wolves could use another frontcourt piece.
All Queen has ever done is produce. It started when he was a freshman at Saint Frances Academy in Baltimore, continued with Team Thrill in the Under Armour Association, and now at Montverde Academy. There will be questions about how his game will translate, especially defensively, but his hands, touch, rebounding and passing are all assets.
Oklahoma
• Fr
• 6’4″
/ 182 lbs
PPG
16.6
RPG
3.6
APG
4.3
3P%
27.9%
Fears is the most pleasant surprise in this freshman class so far. The question is whether he can sustain it. He’s a big, playmaking lead guard who needs a ton of volume and isn’t always especially efficient but has playmaking tools. It would be a big swing for an OKC team that is very comfortable betting on its player development.
Jones may be the best guard in college basketball this year and is uniquely qualified to come into a Brooklyn program that could have significant minutes available in the backcourt and crack the rotation as a rookie.
Washington State
• Sr
• 6’6″
/ 206 lbs
PPG
17.7
RPG
7
APG
3.7
3P%
40%
A late-blooming big wing with a 7-foot wingspan and 39% shooting from behind the arc for his career, Coward began his college career at the Division III level and only played six games this season before a shoulder injury.
Jackson has averaged over 23 points per game through his last six games. He’s always been hyper-competitive and made great strides with his shooting in high school. Now it’s just the feel and shot selection that scouts want to see.
Karaban is a smart and skilled forward who can provide some much-needed floor spacing for an Atlanta franchise that is gradually picking up some quality young assets.
There will be questions about how his game fits with his lack of floor spacing, but Murray-Boyles is a long, strong and rugged forward, or maybe even small-ball five, who could thrive in a more supporting role.
As the Mavs continue to build around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, Fleming gives them a long athlete who is averaging 1.5 blocks per game this season but is still accurate from 3-point range.
If Orlando doesn’t think Jett Howard is the long-term 3-and-D wing they hoped for, Powell could offer them a prospect from that archetype, albeit one who won’t be ready to make an impact just yet.
Philon has exceeded all expectations this year with his two-way instincts and competitiveness to match his lead guard size. He could be an understudy for Marcus Smart in Memphis but needs to shoot it consistently.
Gonzalez is a high-IQ wing with an equally high motor, yet he’s very difficult to evaluate this year because he doesn’t get a ton of minutes. Brooklyn has enough picks to make the risk worth the reward.
Another home-run swing for Brooklyn with this potential jumbo guard in the making. It will be a bet on player development, though, as he’ll have to develop his shooting and total floor game.
Al Horford can’t play forever. Broome is the best big man in college basketball and may have just enough shooting potential to make it work in Boston.
Arkansas
• Jr
• 6’8″
/ 220 lbs
PPG
16.7
RPG
6
APG
2.1
3P%
22.2%
He’s strong, athletic, potentially versatile defensively, and competes with a high motor. If the shooting ever becomes reliable, he would be a very nice role player, which is what the Clippers would love to find here.
An ascending Frenchman, Penda is strong, skilled and very smart. It’s very possible he continues to trend up in the coming months and isn’t available by this point.