10 way-too-early predictions for 2025 NASCAR season

On Feb. 16, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season will begin with the 67th running of the Daytona 500. With a new season comes new opportunities for every driver in the field. 

Here are 10 way-too-early predictions for the 77th season of NASCAR Cup Series racing: 

Kyle Busch gets back into victory lane

One of the bigger underlying stories during the 2024 season was the struggles of two-time champion Busch. He suffered his first winless season in 2024, missing the playoffs in the process. However, Richard Childress Racing seemed to turn the corner late in 2024, and Busch’s talent makes him a threat to win on any weekend. He will attempt to break his 57-race winless streak by winning his first Daytona 500 on Feb. 16. 

Bubba Wallace returns to the playoffs 

After winning a race in both 2021 and 2022 and making the playoffs for the first time in 2023, Wallace stagnated in 2024. He went winless for the second year in a row and failed to make the postseason field. That led to Bootie Barker — Wallace’s crew chief over the past four seasons — stepping down. Charles Denike, who led Christian Eckes to the Truck Series Championship 4 in 2024, will take the reins of the No. 23 team in 2025. With a new crew chief at the helm, big things will be expected of Wallace. 

Denny Hamlin’s career will start to take a downturn

Over the past decade, few Cup Series drivers have been as dangerous as Hamlin, who has made four appearances in the Championship 4 over the past 11 seasons. The bad news? Hamlin has been bounced in the Round of 8 in every season (2022-2024) since the advent of the Next Gen car in 2022. His career is in its twilight years, and he hasn’t done much recently to shake his image as a driver who cracks under pressure. With the outside noise of 23XI Racing’s lawsuit as a distraction, Hamlin could see his performance take a big dip in 2025. 

Championship hangover will bite Joey Logano 

There are two statistics that can be used to predict poor performance from Logano in 2025. The sillier version is the fact that he has never made the Championship 4 in an odd-numbered year, while the second is much more real: Over the past two seasons, the No. 22 car has been slow. As clutch as Logano was to win the title in 2024, he wouldn’t have hoisted the Bill France Cup without a massive number of timely moments. Logano’s third championship banner covers up the fact that the No. 22 team isn’t as big of a threat to win weekly as it once was. Don’t be shocked if Logano is fighting just to make the postseason field in 2025. 

Shane van Gisbergen will run away with Rookie of the Year 

Assuming van Gisbergen and Riley Herbst are the Rookie of the Year candidates, the battle for the award will be intriguing. Van Gisbergen is a veteran driver with an incredible road-racing ability, while Herbst boasts more stock-car experience. However, van Gisbergen’s ability to learn on the fly was obvious during his Xfinity Series campaign in 2024, and if he can find his way into victory lane at a road course, he’ll sew up the award easily. 

Ryan Preece will miss the playoffs in first year with RFK Racing

Preece’s opportunity with RFK Racing will be his best chance at Cup Series success yet. RFK will be the first stable, successful organization that Preece will walk into, but there will be growing pains. In his first year as the pilot of the No. 60 Ford, Preece will miss the playoff field by a slim margin. 

Todd Gilliland will blossom as leader at Front Row Motorsports

With veteran Michael McDowell leaving for Spire Motorsports,. it will be a fourth-year driver Gilliand taking over as the organization’s most tenured driver. Noah Gragson is Gilliland’s only confirmed teammate for 2025, but 2024 Cup Series rookie Zane Smith is expected to be signed by the team in the coming weeks. Gilliland has improved in every season of his career and could take a big step in 2025. Don’t be surprised if he is in contention for a playoff spot in August. 

Kyle Larson will lead the Cup Series in wins 

Larson missed the Championship 4 in 2024, which should serve as motivation for the No. 5 team to make a championship push in 2025. Despite not making the final round of the playoffs, Larson won six races in 2024 — the most of any driver — and led 1,700 laps. The No. 5 team has been elite since coming back to life with Larson in 2021 (23 wins and 6,043 laps led). In 2025, Larson will lead the Cup Series in wins for the third time in five years. 

Spire Motorsports will have at least one car make the playoffs 

Don’t look now, but Spire Motorsports is on the rise. A team consisting of second-year driver Carson Hocevar, fourth-year driver Justin Haley and veteran Michael McDowell is one of the most subtly solid lineups in the Cup Series. Hocevar may provide the team’s best opportunity at a playoff berth, but don’t count out McDowell or Haley, both of whom have won at superspeedways in the Cup Series. 

For the third straight year, Ryan Blaney will make the Championship 4 

Over the past two seasons, Blaney has become one of NASCAR’s elite. His 2023 championship was nearly defended in 2024 before Blaney came up just shy to Penske teammate Joey Logano. In 2025, the No. 12 team will only continue to improve. Don’t be surprised if Blaney sets a career-best mark in race wins and laps led en route to a third consecutive Championship 4 appearance.