Warriors vs. Kings prediction, odds, line, spread: 2025 NBA picks, February 21 best bets from simulation model

The Sacramento Kings return from the NBA All-Star break to host the Golden State Warriors in a Pacific division matchup on Friday at the Golden 1 Center. Both teams are 28-27; Sacramento is 14-13 at home, while Golden State is 13-14 on the road. The Warriors won three of their last four heading into the break, including a 105-98 win over the Houston Rockets on Feb. 13. The Kings also won three of four before the break, but lost their last outing 140-133 to the New Orleans Pelicans in overtime. Golden State is 28-27 and Sacramento is 21-33-1 against the spread this season.

Tipoff in Sacramento is at 10 p.m. ET. The Warriors are favored by 2.5 points in the latest Kings vs. Warriors odds via SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 236 points. Before locking in any Kings vs. Warriors picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second half of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-104 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-9 (67%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Golden State vs. Sacramento and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

• Kings vs. Warriors spread: Kings +2.5
• Kings vs. Warriors over/under: 236 points
• Kings vs. Warriors money line: Kings: +116, Warriors: -138
• Kings vs. Warriors picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Kings vs. Warriors streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Warriors can cover

The Warriors head into the second half of the season with high expectations. Newly acquired Jimmy Butler was able to play in four games with the team before the All-Star break, and he made his presence felt immediately. In those four games, Butler averaged 21.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game.

11-time NBA All-Star Stephen Curry continues to play at a very high level for Golden State. The future Hall of Famer is widely considered to be the best shooter in NBA history and holds the record for most 3-point shots made in a career (3,948). This season, Curry is averaging 23.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. See which team to pick here.

Why the Kings can cover

Meanwhile, the Kings fought the good fight in their overtime matchup against the Pelicans last Thursday but wound up with a less-than-desirable result. They fell 140-133 to New Orleans. The Kings’ loss shouldn’t obscure the performances of Zach LaVine, who dropped a double-double on 32 points and ten assists, and Domantas Sabonis, who dropped a double-double on 22 points and 28 rebounds. 

Like the Warriors, the Kings shook up their roster at the trade deadline in hopes of making a deep postseason run this season. Sacramento made the move to add LaVine, and he has hit the ground running in Sacramento. In six games, LaVine is averaging 21.5 points, 5.0 assists, and 3.0 rebounds per game. Sabonis continues to be a double-double machine, averaging 20.4 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game. See which team to pick here.

How to make Kings vs. Warriors picks

The model has simulated Kings vs. Warriors 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under on the point total, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Kings on Friday, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Kings vs. Warriors spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.