Six Nations: Fin Smith or Marcus Smith? England’s fly-half conundrum assessed ahead of Calcutta Cup

In Fin Smith and Marcus Smith, England have two talented players with distinct qualities needed to drive evolution under Steve Borthwick.

Fly-halves by trade, accommodating both in their preferred position is an impossible task with only one, coveted, No 10 jersey on offer.

Said jersey is currently on Fin Smith’s back after he was named as starting fly-half for Saturday’s Calcutta Cup clash at Allianz Stadium, two weeks on from his impressive full debut against France.

As a result, Marcus Smith will start against Scotland at full-back, a position he may have limited experience in but, as the numbers suggest, could unlock not only his but England’s potential.

Is Fin Smith England’s future at fly-half?

If there is an archetypal fly-half mould, then Fin Smith has been cast from it.

We only have a small sample size of eight appearances to draw upon and yet the strengths of the Northampton fly-half’s game, and contrasts to Marcus Smith’s, are crystal clear.

In his debut start against France, and seven substitute appearances as an England fly-half before that, Fin Smith made more passes and assisted more tries and line breaks per 80 minutes than Marcus Smith.

In simple terms, Fin Smith is a facilitator at fly-half, a playmaker whose first thought upon receiving the ball is to put it through the hands of those outside him as quickly and as intelligently as possible.

If the burgeoning centre axis of Ollie Lawrence, who was at his bulldozing best against France, and Henry Slade was an early indication that Fin Smith could unlock England’s potential, then his orchestration of Elliot Daly’s last-gasp winning try was proof.

Fin Smith has openly admitted to modelling his game on England’s World Cup-winning fly-half Jonny Wilkinson, and similarly to his idol, the 22-year-old has brought physical presence to the 10 shirt, completing 31 per cent more tackles per game than Marcus Smith since making his debut.

Are Marcus Smith’s fly-half days numbered?

While Fin Smith exhibits the traits of a traditional fly-half, Marcus Smith has written his own set of rules since being appointed England’s first-choice 10 in the aftermath of the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

When Marcus Smith receives the ball, his first thought is how much damage he can personally inflict on the opposing team before seeking options outside.

His willingness to engage defences, either by driving to the gain line or drifting across the field, has seen him clock up superior metres-carried and metres-gained figures than Fin Smith, while he beats twice the number of defenders and makes nearly double the number of carries per game.

Fin Smith may assist slightly more line breaks, but the stats show Marcus Smith more than makes up for that with his ability to break through the lines himself, underscoring his standing as the greater attacking threat.

Whether Steve Borthwick sees a future for Marcus Smith at fly-half depends on the direction he wants his England team to go in and, crucially, the opposition that stand in their way.

At the moment, there is novelty to Fin Smith at fly-half, a youthful freshness that England will hope permeates throughout this Six Nations campaign and beyond, but that’s not to say there won’t be a game, or situation within a game, where calling on Marcus Smith at 10 makes more sense.

Could full-back be Marcus Smith’s best position?

Could Marcus Smith’s selection at full-back be the most effective way of getting England’s two best playmakers on the field at the same time in positions where they can do the most damage?

On the surface it appears the Harlequins fly-half has been moved to accommodate Fin Smith in the starting XV, and while that may be true to an extent, it overlooks Marcus Smith as a credible and long-term full-back option.

Since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Marcus Smith has played two games at full-back – a small sample size I hear you cry – with both coming against France, what he produced in those two outings is enough to make you sit up and take notice.

Per 80 minutes at full-back, Marcus Smith has outperformed England’s regular options of Tommy Freeman and George Furbank across almost every metric.

Given his pedigree as a dynamic attacking fly-half, it should come as no surprise to see Marcus Smith lead when it comes to tries, try assists, tackle evasion, line breaks and metres gained.

But his superior defensive statistics – tackle success rate of 66.7 per cent and 1.05 dominant tackles per 80 – over Freeman and Furbank, players with greater stature – and perceived physicality until reading these stats – make for striking reading.

We all know full-back isn’t Marcus Smith’s preferred position but his two performances against France have provided Borthwick with sufficient evidence to persist with the experiment against Scotland.

The jury very much remains out, but helping England end four years of Calcutta Cup misery could offer a glimpse to a future few would have forseen not so long ago.

England team to face Scotland

Starting XV: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Ollie Sleightholme, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell; 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 5 Ollie Chessum, 6 Tom Curry, 7 Ben Earl, 8 Tom Willis.

Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Ted Hill, 20 Chandler Cunningham-South, 21 Ben Curry, 22 Harry Randall, 23 Elliot Daly.

Six Nations fixtures: Round 3

Saturday February 22

Wales vs Ireland (2.15pm)
England vs Scotland (4.45pm)

Sunday February 23

Italy vs France (3pm)