When Will China’s Leader Talk to Trump?

The leaders of the world’s two rival superpowers have plenty to talk about. But so far, it seems, they can’t agree on when they should speak, or even whether they already have.

Over the last 10 days or so, President Trump has sent conflicting messages about talking to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. Mr. Trump said on Feb. 3 that they would have a call within “24 hours,” then reversed himself, saying he was in “no rush” to talk. More recently, when asked whether the two had spoken since he took office, Mr. Trump said that they had.

By contrast, Mr. Xi has said nothing about talking to Mr. Trump. And on Tuesday, China’s foreign ministry suggested that no such call had taken place since Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, apparently contradicting Mr. Trump’s claim, which he made during an interview with the Fox News host Bret Baier that aired this week.

Mr. Xi, it seems, is in no rush to engage, stalling progress on a number of thorny issues in the nations’ competition for global power. (Both sides say the leaders did speak on Jan. 17, before Mr. Trump’s inauguration.) Even as Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs aimed directly and indirectly at China, Mr. Xi has played it cool, preferring to be seen hosting foreign dignitaries at the opening of the Asian Winter Games in the icy northeastern Chinese city of Harbin.

The disconnect reflects, in part, how Mr. Xi is trying to show Mr. Trump and the Chinese people that he will not be intimidated by tariffs, analysts say. Mr. Xi does not want to be confused with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada or President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, both of whom quickly negotiated with Mr. Trump after he threatened to slap 25 percent tariffs on their nations’ exports to the United States.

Those leaders “caved to Trump and Trump claimed victory,” said Zhiqun Zhu, an expert in Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania. “Xi will not let that happen. It would reflect very, very badly on him domestically. I think the strategy is to wait and see what Trump can offer before taking a call.”

Mr. Zhu said Mr. Xi could also be irked by a joint statement that Mr. Trump and Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, released after their meeting in Washington last week, which addressed Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Ishiba said they opposed any changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait made not only by force, but by coercion. The mention of coercion, believed to be a first, refers to China’s use of nonmilitary means to pressure Taiwan, such as cyberattacks and trade restrictions.

To strike any kind of deal with Mr. Xi, Mr. Trump will almost certainly be pressed to soften Washington’s stance on Taiwan. That could include a pledge to reduce American arms sales to the island, or a statement that the United States “opposes” formal independence for Taiwan (currently, it says it “does not support” that).

It is unclear whether the Trump administration would even consider such concessions, which could be widely viewed as a blow to Taiwan’s security.

The administration may also be reluctant to yield on another major demand by Mr. Xi: loosening U.S. restrictions on exports of technology to China, such as the advanced semiconductors needed to power artificial intelligence, a key battleground between the world’s top two economic powers.

As for Mr. Trump, he wants China to reduce its trade surplus with the United States and do more to crack down on undocumented immigration, as well as the sale of chemicals used to make fentanyl. He has called for China to approve a sale of TikTok so that an American company can buy half of the video-sharing platform, and he has suggested that Beijing help his administration end the war in Ukraine.

Chinese analysts said that any promise from Mr. Trump would have to be viewed skeptically. Relations between the two countries seemed stable when Mr. Trump visited Beijing in November 2017 and praised Mr. Xi, saying he did not blame China for its trade deficit with the United States. Two months later, he launched his trade war with China.

Mr. Trump has “said some nice words,” said Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. “But what’s important is how he translates them into action. His actions are the opposite.”

Other analysts said the apparent lack of a call, so far, could be more easily explained.

Chinese leaders typically do not meet or speak with their foreign counterparts until their subordinates “work out all the thorny issues” for an agreement or a joint statement, said John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

Mr. Trump, however, operates more like a business executive, looking to negotiate with world leaders on the fly, as he did during his first presidential term with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader.

“Trump is a little bit delusional in the sense that he thinks in his own way, the Western way, that somehow he can do a sales pitch and convince Xi” to do what he wants, Mr. Gong said. “It’s just not going to happen.”