Can the Penguins or Canada Compete Without Crosby? – The Hockey Writers Pittsburgh Penguins Latest News, Analysis & More

Now, the alarm bells are going off in both Pittsburgh and the Great White North. But who has it worse right now? The Penguins, whose playoff chances are on life support, or Canada, the nation desperate to reclaim supremacy on the international stage?

Let’s Start With Pittsburgh

As of this writing, the Penguins have a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to MoneyPuck. I believe that means their odds are slim. With Evgeni Malkin already sidelined, if Crosby is out for any stretch, will their odds drop tp zero?

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If Crosby and Malkin are both out, other than Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, I don’t see anybody on the offensive side of the lineup who is more than a role player on a contender.  The Penguins aren’t exactly filling the net, even with Crosby and Malkin in the lineup. I doubt their absence will spark a scoring flurry. So yes, Crosby missing any time would be the final nail in the 2024-25 Penguins coffin.

What About Canada?

Did you think Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs were bad news for Canada? What if Crosby can’t play, and Canada is without the player who has led them to two Olympic gold medals and a World Cup championship the last three times the big boys played on an international stage?

Sure, the Canadians have loads of talent. I mean, they have Connor McDavid, after all. But many view this as McDavid’s chance to ‘learn how to win’ under Crosby. Can Team Canada win without Crosby? Sure, but the odds of that happening take quite a tumble without the captain.

Plus, Team Canada’s goaltending was originally the biggest question mark of the tournament. Not to disparage any of the rostered netminders, but we aren’t exactly looking at Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur between the pipes. The last thing Canada needs is more uncertainty surrounding the team, and Crosby missing time doesn’t help.

Crosby: A Nation’s Pride

Let’s face it. There is more to the 4 Nations Face-Off than winning a tournament. Between this and next year’s Olympics, Canada needs to have a good showing. Not just for national pride, but for a chance to reign supreme on the international stage, maybe for the last time. It’s not farfetched to say that Canada’s days as the top hockey nation are numbered. USA Hockey has been creeping closer and closer to Canada, and the teams are now in a dead heat.

Consider the following:

• The USA has won the last two World Junior Championships and Canada didn’t even finish in the top four.
• Hockey can’t possibly get any more popular in Canada, but it can in the United States, and it has been. Canada has a population one-eighth the size of the United States. You do the math.
• The Canadian Dollar is weak, and it factors into where players want to play, which means it can also factor into where they want to live. More hockey kids born in America means more kids in USA’s pipeline.

The point is that the scales are sliding in Team USA’s direction and there may be no coming back from that. If that’s the case, then the 4 Nations Face-Off and the 2026 Winter Olympics might be Canada’s last chance to stand on top. They have the chance to put Crosby, McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar all on the ice together at the same time. It might be now or never for Canada, and there is no better person to deliver a victory for Canada than Crosby.

So, we have two teams waiting with bated breath to see if Crosby can suit up for them. Sure, the Penguins would like to make the playoffs, but even if they don’t, general manager Kyle Dubas seems to be stockpiling the assets that can get the Penguins to the top of the mountain again someday soon. Team Canada, on the other hand? This might be it. This might be their last best chance to claim their national birthright.

I don’t know what will happen in this tournament or the future, but I do know that the eyes of the hockey world will be watching Crosby’s every move between now and next Wednesday.