Who are national title contenders, pretenders in college hoops?

Who’s for real? 

That’s the big question in men’s college basketball as teams shift their full attention to conference opponents in early 2025.

History indicates the field of national title contenders is set fairly early on. Per Chris Fisher of On3.com, every national champion since 2004 was ranked inside the top 12 of the Week 6 Associated Press poll. (We are now in Week 10.) With the streak now at 21 years, it’s a good bet this year’s champion will come from that dozen as well. 

That means the SEC has the best chance to lift the trophy. The Week 6 poll included five SEC teams (Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida) within the top 12. The remaining seven included two teams from the Big Ten (Purdue, Oregon), two from the Big 12 (Iowa State, Kansas), along with Duke (ACC), Marquette (Big East) and Gonzaga (West Coast Conference).

With March Madness around the corner, here are three true contenders and three pretenders from the 12 listed above. (All statistics and records are through Wednesday’s games. Current ranking is noted for each team.)

Contenders

No. 1 Tennessee (14-1): The Volunteers suffered their first loss of the season Tuesday, a 30-point shellacking at No. 8 Florida, but they are a legit contender thanks to stingy defense. The Vols rank first in the SEC in opponent points per game (57.1), field-goal percentage (35.3%) and three-point percentage (24.6%). A steady presence at point guard in senior Zakai Zeigler is a March must. Rick Barnes’ squad has the makings of a championship team.

No. 4 Duke (13-2): Cooper Flagg has lived up the hype, averaging 17.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He’s a huge reason why Duke can make a March run, but there are plenty of other pieces on the roster that make Duke scary. The Blue Devils are reliant on the three-pointer, taking 48 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. On the other end, Duke ranks third in KenPom defensive rating. The last time Duke ranked top five on defense? 2009-10, which it ended with a national championship.

No. 11 Kansas (11-3): Wins over North Carolina, Michigan State and Duke as a part of a 7-0 start had KU on the mountaintop, but it has suffered three losses since. For two reasons, though, the Jayhawks are a contender. The team has leaned into its defense lately. KU has held its past two opponents to 51.5 points per game on 27 percent shooting. Kansas also has a multitude of weapons on offense, which is perfect for a six-game run in the postseason. Five different players have led the Jayhawks in scoring through their first 14 games.

Pretenders

No. 15 Oregon (13-2): The Ducks are 5-2 against Quad 1 teams and their start is their best since the 2016-17 season. So what gives? Spotty defense. Oregon’s defensive rating (an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions) has been alarmingly bad in its past two Big Ten games. In their past three Big Ten games, the Ducks are allowing 12.3 three-point field goals per game. That won’t cut it in March.

No. 18 Gonzaga (13-4): Early season wins over ranked Baylor and Indiana had Gonzaga flying high, but the Zags are looking less like a true contender these days. Of the 12 teams listed above, Gonzaga is one of only two with a losing record against Quad 1 teams (2-4). West Coast Conference opponents the rest of the way should boost Gonzaga’s win total, but don’t expect the Zags to lift the trophy.

No. 20 Purdue (11-4): Zach Edey left big shoes to fill literally and figuratively. The Boilers are finding out how hard it is to replace the 7-foot-4 National Player of the Year. Purdue ranks in the bottom half of the Big Ten in points per game (77.4) and points per game allowed (69.8). Shooting guard Fletcher Loyer is shooting 48 percent from the field, but in four losses, he shot just 36 percent. Even more troubling: Loyer is a 48-percent shooter from downtown, but he is 2-for-13 from three in the losses. That’s a trend that spells doom for Purdue.