Avalanche Needed To Extend Blackwood Sooner Then Later – The Hockey Writers Colorado Avalanche Latest News, Analysis & More

The Colorado Avalanche returned from the Christmas break and quickly completed an essential business by signing goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood to a five-year contract extension worth $26.5 million ($5.25 million average annual value.) Blackwood was acquired on Dec. 9, his 28th birthday, in a trade with the San Jose Sharks that sent former starting goaltender Alexandar Georgiev away. In the four games Blackwood has played for the Avalanche, he has a record of 3-1-0, boasting a .931 save percentage (SV%) and a 1.81 goals against average (GAA). His performance impressed the team, and head coach Jared Bednar expressed enthusiasm about having Blackwood on the roster.

The trade for Blackwood was costly, considering his unimpressive track record in the NHL. However, with Colorado’s season struggling to gain momentum—mainly due to Georgiev’s significant difficulties—the Avalanche felt it was necessary to take action and alter their course. Colorado’s confidence in Blackwood’s potential to develop into a top-tier goaltender will now be tested with his new contract. The challenge lies in that Blackwood has never been a full-time starter in the NHL, has dealt with injuries, and has yet to play in any playoff games.

Colorado’s Approach To Goaltending Needed To Change

The timing of this contract certainly raises eyebrows from various perspectives. On one hand, the Avalanche have long taken a budget-conscious approach to the goaltender position. They have traded for promising backups, looking to develop them into full-time starters, as they did with Philipp Grubauer and Georgiev, and signed them to cost-effective three-year deals.

The only time the Avalanche invested more in the goaltender market was when Grubauer signed a long-term deal with Seattle after achieving success in Colorado. At that time, the Avalanche made a significant trade, sending a hefty package to the Arizona Coyotes for Darcy Kuemper. Notably, they won the Stanley Cup with Kuemper in net, as he had a strong regular season in Colorado. However, his playoff performance was more complicated, with notable performances but limited due to injuries, needing backup Pavel Francouz to step in multiple times.

Trading for Blackwood and immediately signing him to a five-year deal indicates a significant change in the organization’s philosophy regarding the goaltending position. Previously, the team was content with operating on the margins by saving salary cap space and investing it in the players in front of the goaltender. They believed that by finding a “good enough” goalie, they could build a strong roster that would make the goalie’s job easier. Essentially, they aimed to financially devalue the goaltender position to allocate more resources to the rest of the team.

While this approach has led to regular-season success over the past eight years, the Avalanche recognized that their window for success with star players Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen was closing due to the decline in Georgiev’s performance. With this in mind, Blackwood was acquired to address the situation this season and for the next five beyond this one.

How This Deal Impacts Future Contracts

There will likely be some shock regarding the deal, as Blackwood’s salary is rising from his current $2.35 million AAV to $5.25 million. The Avalanche are constantly navigating a salary-cap crunch due to the high salaries of their elite players, which will only increase with Rantanen due for a new contract this summer. Thus, the days of the Avalanche paying $4 million for their goaltending tandem are over.

With Blackwood and new backup Scott Wedgewood signed, the Avalanche will go from spending $4,237,500 million on their opening-night goaltending tandem this season (comprised of Georgiev and Justus Annunen) to $6,750,000 million for what is expected to be their opening-night tandem next season. Given that every dollar counts for the Avalanche, this approximately $2.5-million increase in goaltending costs will necessitate cuts elsewhere in their budget.

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From Blackwood’s perspective, he has gained the financial security he has sought after his career’s ups and downs. With the salary cap expected to increase significantly over the next few years, the deal will be better with time as other goaltenders will have signed much-more-significant deals, making his a much better value in the long run. However, there was certainly some risk involved in this decision. If he fails to meet the high expectations with the Avalanche, he may not come close to being worth the deal he just signed.

From a salary cap perspective, the long-term implications for the Avalanche are challenging to assess due to the uncertain salary cap ceiling for next season and Gabriel Landeskog’s ongoing recovery process. Landeskog’s $7 million salary casts a significant shadow over the organization. However, Blackwood’s contract seems reasonable if we consider him a league-average starting goaltender. His $5.25 million salary for next season ranks as the 17th-highest cap hit for goaltenders (not counting Carey Price, who has not played since 2021-22; otherwise, Blackwood would rank 18th).

Better To Sign This Deal Now Then Later

The Avalanche are certainly taking a considerable risk with this deal. If it doesn’t work out, they could be stuck with a contract other teams are unwilling to take on. They might have to give up valuable assets to get rid of it, and then they’ll face even more significant costs to find a replacement for that position. Though, with how he is playing, taking the risk of not signing him and leaving it into the offseason — after when and the team could go onto a deep playoff run — only increases his price, potentially bumping that AAV to the range of 6-7 million per year. As stated earlier, it isn’t a drastic increase when you look at the salary he will be making and the goaltenders around him who make the same. Tristan Jarry, Kuemper, and Elvis Merzlikins are all players making roughly the same AAV.

Goaltending could improve significantly with Ilya Nabokov, the Avavalanche’s goaltender, selected in the second round of the 2024  NHL Entry Draft last summer. The team has high hopes for him, and he has had a strong season in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). His contract expires next summer, meaning he could move to North America if he chooses to. However, with Blackwood and Wedgewood now under contract, Nabokov would likely need to start with the American Hockey League’s Colorado Eagles in Loveland. 

The Avalanche’s goaltending has been a carousel for better or worse in the past seasons. Short tenures often led to rash decisions to trade for a goaltender or sign free agents to fill a void on short notice. With this extension, the trade for Wedgewood, and the possibility of having Nabokov head to North America in the coming years, the Avalanche goaltending situation seems finally stable. This will allow the team to focus on other expiring contracts and team needs for now and the future.