Lakers vs. Warriors odds, score prediction: 2024 NBA Christmas Day picks, best bets by proven computer model

The 2024 NBA Christmas Day schedule is highlighted by a primetime matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers (16-13) and Golden State Warriors (15-13). It will be the fifth Christmas Day meeting between LeBron James and Stephen Curry, with the two splitting the previous four. This will be the two teams’ first matchup this season, and the Warriors won the last three of four regular-season meetings last year. Golden State will host this Christmas NBA game, and the Warriors are 7-6 at home, while the Lakers are 7-9 on the road.

Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State is a 4-point favorite in the latest Warriors vs. Lakers odds, per SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points is 222.5. Before making any Lakers vs. Warriors picks or NBA Christmas bets, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 10 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 128-92 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Warriors vs. Lakers 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Lakers vs. Warriors:

• Warriors vs. Lakers spread: Golden State -4
• Warriors vs. Lakers over/under: 222.5 points
• Warriors vs. Lakers money line: Golden State -173, Lakers +145
• GSW: The Warriors are 16-12 against the spread
• LAL: The Lakers are 13-16 against the spread
• Warriors vs. Lakers picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Warriors vs. Lakers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State has both won and covered in each of the last three meetings between these teams, with a 13-point average margin of victory. This year’s team relies on its Strength in Numbers motto, and that’s evident in its depth. Steve Kerr deploys a 13-man rotation, and having such a deep team allows everyone on the court to go all-out when in the game. That flurry of activity has resulted in the Warriors ranking in the top 10 in rebounds, assists and steals, and with Curry leading the way, Golden State is fourth is made 3-pointers per game.

The Warriors also hold opponents to the fourth-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA, which could cause issues for the Lakers. L.A. already struggles to score, ranking 20th in points per game, and the team is 27th in made 3-pointers per game. Golden State is also built to stop a team like the Lakers, which heavily relies on Anthony Davis inside the arc and James driving to the hoop, as the Warriors allow the second-fewest points in the paint per game. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers are a strong 5-1 against the spread in divisional games, while Golden State has failed to cover in all three of its division games. The Warriors’ overall spread success has been fleeting as of late as Golden State started the season 9-2 ATS but has since gone 7-10 versus the line. Additionally, the Lakers are 7-4 ATS over their last 11 regular-season road games in this head-to-head series.

Despite the presence of arguably the greatest shooter in NBA history in Curry, the Warriors, as a team, struggle with accuracy all over the court. They rank dead last in free throw percentage, 27th in 2-point percentage and are 24th in field goal percentage. While the Lakers don’t shoot the lights out, themselves, they do get easy points at the line, leading the NBA in made free throws per game. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Lakers vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the total, projecting 222 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s picks. 

So who wins Warriors vs. Lakers on Christmas, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Warriors spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.