Three keys to Thunder-Bucks NBA Cup final

One of the youngest teams will face one of the oldest when the Thunder and Bucks square off in the second annual NBA Cup final on Tuesday. 

OKC (-4.5) opens a considerable favorite, and rightfully so. It has the deeper team, the league’s No. 1 defense and arguably the best player on the court — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be more reliable than Giannis Antetokounmpo in clutch moments. 

Here are three keys that could determine the outcome of the marquee clash in Las Vegas. 

Cason Wallace and Co. on Dame

The resurgent Bucks — who’ve won 10 of their last 12 games — have started to run a lot of pick-and-rolls with Damian Lillard and Antetokounmpo, with the latter rolling to the rim. 

However, due to the on-ball pressure Lillard will face from Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Jalen Williams, a lot of those actions will be disrupted. Wallace, especially, is adept at going over screens and making life difficult for ball-handlers (just ask Luka Doncic). 

Lillard — who is quietly having an excellent season — could be in for a long night navigating OKC’s perimeter defense. During the Bucks’ last 12 games, he is making 3.7 threes per game at 38.9 percent while averaging 8.3 assists. It’s hard to foresee him maintaining those numbers against this OKC team, which averages a league-leading 12.2 assists per game. 

OKC wall to stop Greek Freak

The Thunder typically like to take away from the opponent’s best player and force “the others” to beat them. As such, it is almost expected that Luguentz Dort — a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year — won’t be alone in tackling Antetokounmpo, and the Thunder will build a wall to stop the “Greek Freak” from getting to the rim. 

And when he does, Antetokounmpo will have to deal with 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein, who has quickly emerged as one of the best rim protectors in the league. The Thunder allow a league-best 41.8 points in the rim, and Antetokounmpo himself averages 18.3 points in the restricted area, the most in the league. The game could be decided by the shooters around Antetokounmpo making their shots as he tries to survive the Dorture Chamber in one piece.

Bucks will need to be aggressors

The Bucks thrive in a half-court game, as evidenced by their being 24th in transition points. An aging team, they prefer a possession-by-possession game, which worked in their favor against the faster-paced Hawks in the semifinals. 

However, to their misfortune, the Thunder have the personnel to play either style. Mark Daigneault’s team is eighth in fast-break points but thrives in a grind-it-out style as well, which was the MO in their semifinal win over the Rockets. 

The Bucks can’t afford to let the Thunder dictate the pace, which could happen if the latter adopts a hack-a strategy to send Antetokounmpo to the foul line. Instead, they need to be aggressively looking for their shot and hope that Lillard, Khris Middleton, AJ Green and the other shooters find their rhythm quickly. If not, they could be looking at a low-scoring game that finishes with SGA and Co. imposing their will.

The NBA Cup final tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday.