Stars could align for Saints, Arch Manning in 2026 NFL Draft

With their present bleak, it’s time for the Saints to plan for their future.

If New Orleans peers far enough ahead, it might just see its next franchise quarterback.

Despite only being two games behind the Falcons (6-6) for first in the NFC South, the Saints (4-8) are closer to the league’s bottom than they are to its top.

Per Tankathon, New Orleans is currently projected to have the No. 10 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Its remaining schedule features games against the Giants (2-10), Commanders (8-5), Packers (9-3), Raiders (2-10) and Buccaneers (6-6).

ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index projects the Saints to finish 6-11, which would be their most losses since 2005. At an estimated $62.8M over the cap in 2025, next season could be even worse.

As bad as things can still get, it would be worth it if the road leads to Texas quarterback Arch Manning.

Manning played high school football in New Orleans at Isidore Newman, a 10-minute drive from the Superdome, where the Saints play their home games.

The top-ranked recruit of the 2023 cycle, Manning has played sparingly at Texas, spending his first two seasons backing up Quinn Ewers.

He started twice this season — against UL Monroe and Mississippi State — and also appeared in games against Colorado State, UTSA, Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M.

Manning is 61-of-90 passing (67.8%) for 939 yards (10.4 yards per attempt), nine touchdowns and two interceptions, and he’s added 95 yards and four touchdowns on 20 rush attempts.

He scored a 15-yard touchdown on a designed quarterback run against Texas A&M in Week 14 to help send Texas to the SEC championship game in its inaugural season as a conference member.

Manning will be highly sought after in the NFL, and he can be selective.

Manning is eligible to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. However, with the NCAA beginning to allow athletes to earn compensation while playing collegiately, he won’t need to rush into a bad situation in the pros.

His grandfather, Archie Manning, knows all too well how bad things can get in New Orleans. Drafted second overall in the 1971 NFL Draft, Manning played 11 seasons for the Saints, going 35-91-3 and leading the league in times sacked three times.

He didn’t play in 1976 due to a shoulder injury and never made the playoffs despite being named Sporting News NFC Player of the Year in 1978.

The Saints have multiple holes. While they might be tempted to consider quarterback Derek Carr’s potential replacement in the 2025 NFL Draft, they’d be better off adding players at other positions of need, including along the defensive line, offensive line and wide receiver, to set the table for a splash at quarterback the following offseason.

New Orleans can opt out of Carr’s four-year, $150M contract following this season, which would come with a $50M dead cap hit that the team could split between 2025 and 2026 if Carr were designated a post-June 1 release.

That would likely accelerate the team’s descent next year unless backup quarterback Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler vastly improve over the offseason, which seems unlikely.

The stars could align for New Orleans to earn the No. 1 overall pick just as Manning declares for the NFL Draft.

No team wants to tank a season, but the Saints aren’t positioned to compete for a title.

Their quickest path to a return to relevancy might be by playing the long game and setting themselves up to welcome Manning home.