China October exports record highest jump in 19 months, imports decline more than expected

China’s exports in October rose at their fastest pace in 19 months, sharply beating analysts’ estimates, according to data from the country’s customs agency on Thursday.

Exports rose by 12.7% in October from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, their highest jump since March 2023, according to LSEG data. That compares with 2.4% growth in September, 8.7% in August and 7% in July.

Analysts had pegged exports growth at 5.2% year on year in October, according to a Reuters poll.

Imports, however, fell by a more-than-expected 2.3% in October. That compares with a modest growth of 0.3% in September and 0.5% in August. Analysts had forecast a decline of 1.5% in October exports, according to a Reuters poll.

“The better-than-expected export figures can be attributed to delayed shipments in October due to improved weather conditions, ongoing price discounts to capture market share, and the traditional peak season leading up to Christmas,” Bruce Pang, chief economist of Greater China at JLL told CNBC.

The world’s second-largest economy has been grappling with weakening domestic consumption and a protracted property crisis, with exports being a rare bright spot.

Chinese officials has unveiled a flurry of stimulus measures since late September, including interest rate cuts, lower cash reserve requirements at banks and loosened property purchase rules, in a bid to revive the ailing economy.

In October, China’s factory activity expanded for the first time since April, with the official purchasing managers’ index coming in at 50.1, beating September’s 49.8 and analysts’ estimate of 49.9.

China’s parliament standing committee meeting is underway, with expectations that it will announce details about further fiscal stimulus when it concludes on Friday.

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