Trump victory casts shadow over upcoming COP global climate talks

The reaction among climate activists to the American public’s decision to hand the keys to the White House back to the Republican candidate has been swift and predictably gloomy, and many are looking to the EU to take the lead if its transatlantic partner turns its back on global climate action for a second time.

In his victory speech, president elect Donald Trump made clear his position on fossil fuels: “We have more liquid gold, oil and gas, we have more liquid gold than any country in the world, more than Saudi Arabia. We have more than Russia.” His campaign team signalled in June that he would pull out of the Paris Agreement again.

For many it was already clear that he planned to take a wrecking ball to domestic green policy as well as throwing a spanner in the works of global climate diplomacy.

The sea-change in US politics comes just five days before world leaders are due to convene in the Azeri capital to hammer out a global agreement on funding by rich nations to help the developing world skip the fossil fuel-powered growth that they enjoyed, and continue to enjoy, while adapting to already manifest climate breakdown.

A ‘grim reminder’

French economist Laurence Tubiana was France’s climate change ambassador during the COP21 talks in 2015, and was instrumental in forging the Paris Agreement to try and limit global heating to within 1.5°C of the average in the latter half of the 19th century. She now heads the European Climate Foundation.

“The context today is very different to 2016,” Tubiana said, referring to Trump’s first election victory, which was followed by his announcement of the US’ withdrawal from the global pact. “There is powerful economic momentum behind the global transition, which the US has led and gained from, but now risks forfeiting. The devastating toll of recent hurricanes was a grim reminder that all Americans are affected by worsening climate change.”

EU has ‘moral imperative’

The reaction of many in Europe suggested that incumbent president Joe Biden’s negotiating team – announced just last week – for the COP29 summit in Baku has been transformed into something of a lame duck by the spectre hanging over it of a likely US withdrawal after Trump takes office in January.

“Lack of US leadership does not alter the scientific and moral imperative to immediately address global emissions and build climate resilience,” said Chiara Martinelli, director of Climate Action Network Europe.

“It also doesn’t change the high expectations of the EU to constructively contribute in reaching an agreement in Baku for a new financial goal that meets the scale of the emergency and truly moves resources from the rich to the most climate vulnerable countries, particularly in the global south,” she said.

A major question to be answered in the Azeri capital is the degree to which other powerful and growing economies, and major polluters, will feel less pressure to contribute if they sense the largest economy in the world is about to walk away from the table.

America sends ‘troubling signals’

Concern has already been raised about the apparent intention of the leaders of China, India and others to skip the conference. It was only increased by the confirmation yesterday that European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will not be going, while French president Emmanuel Macron’s name is still missing from the provisional list of world leaders who have asked to be given the floor in Baku.

Although not directly participating in the inter-governmental talks, the European Parliament is sending a 15-strong delegation to the COP29. Leading the Socialists & Democrats contingent in the team will be Mohammed Chahim, who told Euronews that developments across the Atlantic were sending “troubling signals for global climate ambitions”.

The Dutch lawmaker suggested it was too soon for climate campaigners to give up hope on the talks.

“Trump’s past withdrawal was more symbolic than effective, as American NGOs, Senators, and House members still engaged in COPs,” Chahim said. “With green technologies now more affordable and the reduction of emissions increasingly linked to financial benefits, it is harder than ever for Trump to resist the green agenda entirely.”

“Nonetheless, the EU must now take a stronger leadership role, both to sustain momentum and to counterbalance the US stance,” he added. “President Von der Leyen’s absence, though regrettable, does not imply a lack of EU commitment.”

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A White House ‘paralysed by denial and deregulation’

Chahim said EU delegates must now make sure they are “especially vocal and visible”, a sentiment shared by Patrick ten Brink, secretary general of the European Environmental Bureau, an influential Brussels-based NGO umbrella group.

“With Donald Trump’s re-election, the EU must recognise the urgency of stepping up and scaling up as the global leader in climate and environmental policy,” ten Brink said. “His administration’s poor track record, from rolling back hundreds of environmental protections to pushing fossil fuel expansion, abandoning the Paris Agreement, and propping up coal, makes it clear that the US will not be taking any leadership role on climate and environment but rather will likely remain paralysed by denial and deregulation.”

Responding to questions from Euronews in a press briefing today, a European Commission spokesperson referred to a statement from von der Leyen that underlined EU-US partnership and common goals.

“Climate action must be seen in that context as a matter of security and of opportunity for both Europe and the United States,” the Commission official said. “Both Europe and America have suffered in recent weeks and months from the devastating impacts of climate change.”

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Hopes of a ‘rethink’

“Our climate action should be seen in this context as a way to create jobs and drive investment in a mutually beneficial way,” he said. The spokesperson said it would be “premature” to respond to Trump’s pronouncement on oil and gas.

Former Irish prime minister Mary Robinson – who once chaired Nelson Mandela’s panel of concerned global leaders, the Elders – warned that the US stance must not provide cover for others world powers to avoid taking action, and suggested that Trump might have a change of heart.

“I sincerely hope that the recent hurricanes in the United States have caused President Trump to rethink his belief that climate change will create ‘more oceanfront properties’,” Robinson said.