Here’s how Election Day 2024 might unfold around the US and in New York
Well, here we are again.
Exactly 728 days after the 2022 midterm elections, Americans are heading to the polls to choose their 47th president, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 34 members of the US Senate.
It’s a night that will set the course of America for the next four years as around 150 million of our fellow countrymen are set to choose between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to be the next commander in chief.
We understand if you feel overwhelmed and we’re here to help.
Below, The Post lays out the complete election night guide.
What do the final polls say?
If the polls are accurate, this will be the closest popular vote race since the famed 1960 election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Harris leads Trump by 0.1% nationwide.
No Republican nominee has won the popular vote since 2004, a streak the 78-year-old Trump will be eager to break.
When do the polls close in the most important states?
There are seven swing states that will determine the outcome of the presidential race: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Last polls will close at 7 p.m. ET in Georgia; 7:30 p.m. in North Carolina; 8 p.m. in Pennsylvania, 9 p.m. in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin; 10 p.m. in Nevada.
What are the most important non-presidential races?
Republicans could win up to 57 Senate seats if all battleground results go their way tonight. Here’s a rundown of those races, from most likely to least likely to flip to GOP control.
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester v. Tim Sheehy
Polls indicate it will take a miracle for the three-term Democrat Tester to keep his seat against the Republican Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown v. Bernie Moreno
Tester’s fellow member of the Democratic Class of 2006 is hoping enough of his Trump-leaning working class base will stay loyal to propel him back to Washington for a fourth term.
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Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin v. Eric Hovde
Polls have shown Baldwin consistently ahead in her fight for a third term against businessman Hovde. However, a strong Republican performance in early voting has them optimistic they can elect a GOPer to hold this seat for the first time since Joseph McCarthy in 1952.
Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey Jr. v. David McCormick
Another Democratic senator elected in 2006, Casey is hoping his family name and affiliated goodwill (his dad, also named Bob, was a two-term governor of the Keystone State) help him lock up a fourth term.
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin v. former Rep. Mike Rogers
Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, has consistently led Rogers, the ex-GOP chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, in this battle to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. A Rogers win here would likely mean good things for Republicans up and down the ballot in the Mitten State.
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Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego v. Kari Lake
Lake, a former TV news anchor and one of the most loyal proponents of the claim by Trump that the 2020 election was stolen, faces an uphill battle against the progressive Gallego in this race to replace the retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen v. Sam Brown
The Silver State hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 2012. Brown, who suffered severe burns after being hit by an IED in Afghanistan in 2008, could be another beneficiary of strong GOP early voting overperformance in his battle with the freshman Rosen.
Are any likely voters still undecided?
Not many. According to the most recent New York Times/Siena College national poll, just 4% of likely voters either said they didn’t know or refused to say who they’d back.
In a Leger poll commissioned by The Post and published Sunday, just 2% of respondents declined to pick either Trump or Harris.
Which states will take the longest to count their ballots?
Among the swing states that will determine the outcome, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have a history of keeping election watchers up late before a result is projected.
However, officials are optimistic the count won’t take as long as four years ago, when Joe Biden was not projected to win the presidency until the Saturday after the last votes were cast.
Are there any concerns about the election being fair?
There have already been legal challenges over the conduct of the vote in a trio of key states.
In Wisconsin, the Republican National Committee sued election officials in Milwaukee Monday after they announced a plan to cap the number of poll watchers allowed in certain precincts at one Democrat and one Republican. The RNC charged that the limit violates state law. The case is pending.
In Georgia, the state Supreme Court ruled Monday that some 3,400 voters in Cobb County, north of Atlanta, would not get an extension to return their absentee ballots by mail. Instead, they will have until 7 p.m. Tuesday to return their ballots to a county elections office or vote in person at their regular polling place.
In Pennsylvania, the US Supreme Court declined to step in and enjoin a ruling by the state’s highest court requiring election boards to count provisional ballots submitted by voters whose mail-in ballots were deemed invalid.
I’ve already voted; How can I kill time until the results come in?
For a start, you can check out some of the discounts and other benefits you get when you present your “I voted” sticker across NYC and across the US.
What time do polls open and close in New York?
Polling places across the Empire State open at 6 a.m. and close at 9 p.m.
What are some key races to watch in New York?
1st Congressional District
GOP Rep. Nick LaLota tries to keep the East End of Long Island red following a challenge from ex-Rudy Giuliani speechwriter and former CNN analyst John Avlon
4th Congressional District
Democrats will be disappointed if former Hempstead town supervisor Laura Gillen doesn’t avenge her 2022 loss to Republican ex-NYPD detective Anthony D’Esposito in this Nassau County seat.
17th Congressional District
Another Republican freshman, Mike Lawler, tries to keep hold of his Hudson Valley seat and prevent the return to Washington of Democrat Mondaire Jones
19th Congressional District
Marc Molinaro, another key member of the 2022 red wave, is locked in a neck-and-neck race against Democrat Josh Riley in yet another rematch from two years ago.
22nd Congressional District
Trump-endorsed GOP Rep. Brandon Williams will try to win a second term in a district that went for President Biden by seven percentage points in 2020. Democratic state Sen. John Mannion is the challenger.
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