Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR’s Martinsville elimination race

The NASCAR Cup Series is at Martinsville Speedway this weekend for the penultimate round of the 2024 season, with Sunday’s Xfinity 500 set to decide which two drivers join Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick in racing for a championship.

Since being moved to this slot on the schedule in 2020, Martinsville has seen some unforgettable moments as drivers claw for one last shot to make the championship four. With that in mind, here are three to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — as well as one to avoid for this weekend.

Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+450, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Hamlin is one of the four remaining playoff drivers currently below the line to advance to the season finale at Phoenix International Raceway with a shot at the title. At 18 points back of William Byron, he might need a win to advance, and thankfully for him, he’s done so at Martinsville five times. The most recent of those wins was back in 2015, but he’s led significant laps in seven of the past eight Martinsville races. He’s overdue.

After being eliminated in the Round of Eight the past two seasons, Hamlin is itching for another chance to finally win a championship — especially because at age 43, he may not have very many left. He’s tied with Kyle Larson with the best odds at +450, but Hamlin should be considered the favorite.

Contender: Chase Elliott (+650)

Another driver with his season on the line on Sunday is Elliott, who at 43 points behind Byron will absolutely need a win to advance to the championship four. He’s done it before, though, back in 2020 when he was in the same situation and went supernova on the field with a dominant victory en route to winning the title.

That remains Elliott’s only Martinsville win, but he’s always strong there with 1,104 laps led for his career, including at least 50 in six of the past eight races. He’s also coming off of one of his best performances of the year at Homestead last week, where he led 81 laps and finished fourth. Elliott should be a threat all weekend, and with his odds only fourth-best at +650, you’ll gladly take that.

Dark horse: Ty Gibbs (+2500)

It seems unlikely that anyone outside the playoff picture would spoil the party this weekend, especially a driver who has teammates still racing for a championship. However, Gibbs has been known to throw his teammates aside at Martinsville before, and he’s a very strong short-track driver. He’s never finished better than 18th at Martinsville in the Cup Series, but he was a contender in this race a year ago before an incident with Joey Logano took him out of the running.

The imminent breakout hype surrounding Gibbs has quieted a bit ever since his elimination from the playoffs, but he shouldn’t be slept on too much. Those +2500 odds are very enticing, only tied for 10th-best, so if you’re looking for a value pick this week, he could be the guy.

Avoid: Kyle Larson (+450)

The driver who has dominated the 2024 season finds himself needing to make up seven points to advance to the championship round, and given his history at Martinsville, that won’t be an easy task. He did win the pole and lead 86 laps en route to a runner-up finish back in April, but historically, it has not been a great track for him with only one win and no races with more than 100 laps led.

Larson is listed as the co-favorite along with Hamlin, but several other drivers feel like better bets this weekend including two of his teammates in Elliott and Byron (the latter of whom won the spring race at Martinsville this year). Also keep in mind that since Larson isn’t in a must-win situation, he and his team may play things more conservatively for a solid points showing. All in all, it’s probably best not to bet on him winning on Sunday.