China’s manufacturing output swings back into expansion in October, private survey finds

China’s factory activity swung back into expansion among smaller manufacturers in October, according to a private survey released on Friday.

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in October, beating the median estimate of 49.7 in a Reuters poll. 

The reading compared with 49.3 in September, 50.4 in August and 49.8 in July. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a reading below that level points to contraction.

This private gauge, which focuses on smaller and export-oriented firms, comes after the official PMI data, released Thursday, indicated that manufacturing activity in the country expanded for the first time since April. 

“Supply and demand both expanded. Overall market demand recovered, while production grew steadily,” Wang Zhe, a senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in the survey release.

Incoming new orders placed with Chinese manufacturers also increased at the quickest pace in four months on the back of “underlying demand conditions and successive new business development endeavors,” according to the release.

Caixin, however, noted that export orders remained in decline, though the rate of reduction eased in the latest survey period, and employment fell again, meaning manufacturers had stayed cautious when it came to workforce numbers.

The Caixin PMI, which is based on feedback from purchasing executives through questionnaires, has traditionally been one of the first monthly indicators to assess the state of the country’s economy.

The world’s second largest economy has struggled to regain its growth momentum in the face of tepid consumption and an embattled property market. Exports have been a rare bright spot.

China’s parliament standing committee is set to meet next week, with expectations that it will announce details about fiscal stimulus after the gathering ends on Nov. 8.

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