Would Putin prefer Trump or Harris as next US president?

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with a mocking smile when asked about the US presidential election at an economic forum in Vladivostok. 

Speaking at the event in the eastern Russian city, Putin teased that his “favourite” had been US President Joe Biden, but as Biden is no longer in the running, he sarcastically suggested support for Kamala Harris, noting her “infectious laugh” as a positive. 

Next Tuesday, US citizens will head to the polls to choose their next president in an election that appears to be on a knife-edge between Democratic candidate Harris and her Republican counterpart, Donald Trump.

The outcome of the election holds significant implications for Russia, with analysts noting that neither Harris nor former President Trump is considered likely to repair strained US-Russia relations. 

Harris has maintained a strong stance against Moscow, while Trump — despite his admiration for Putin — imposed major sanctions on Russia during his term as president.

Referring to Trump, Putin said at the Vladivostok event that there were “so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia like no other president has introduced before him.” 

Harvard academic Timothy Colton said that Trump may be marginally preferred by the Kremlin leadership as a “known quantity”.

“Nothing good is going to come in the election from Russia’s point of view,” said Colton, chair of The Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies.

Where do Harris and Trump stand on Russia?

Harris has pledged support for Ukraine and is seen as likely to maintain the Biden administration’s military and economic aid for the country, while Trump has hinted at a desire to negotiate an end to the conflict, potentially by lifting sanctions on Russia. 

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the US has supplied Kyiv with over $59.5 billion (€54.9bn) in weapons and aid. 

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, has suggested that Ukraine should demilitarise Russian-occupied territories and declare neutrality — positions rejected by Kyiv but favoured by Moscow. 

Furthermore, Harris has openly criticised Russia on human rights issues, especially in the case of the death in prison of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. She denounced his death as “a further sign of Putin’s brutality.”

Trump, meanwhile, compared Navalny’s situation to his own legal troubles. He has also shared views on gender identity and transgender participation in women’s sports that parallel Russia’s rollback of LGBTQ+ rights and championing of conservative “traditional values” under Putin.

Trump’s term caused friction with NATO, as he questioned the US’ obligation to defend allies who failed to meet defence spending targets, and challenged the alliance’s mutual defence clause. 

If elected, Trump warned leaders that he would not defend nations failing to meet those spending targets, adding that Russia could “do whatever they want” to those countries.

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Harris has said the US’ commitment to NATO is “ironclad”, a contrast to Trump’s assertions that non-compliant members might face Russian aggression.

Nuclear agreements are another area of interest, as the New START nuclear treaty — the last remaining nuclear arms pact between the US and Russia — is set to expire in 2026. 

Harris is expected to support renewing the treaty, in line with Biden’s policies.

Trump, however, has previously withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, and has called for a new pact that includes both Russia and China.

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Ultimately, the Kremlin’s stance on the US presidential election will depend on whether the winner signals a shift in policy on Ukraine, NATO, or nuclear arms agreements.