Which EU candidate country is most creditworthy?

Ten countries are waiting in the wings to join the EU – but only one has received an investment-grade credit rating from the top rating agencies. 

The BBB- credit rating achieved by Serbia — the first of its kind following a 4 October upgrade by S&P Global — has won plaudits from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“I want to congratulate Serbia … This is a big achievement,” von der Leyen said of the rating upgrade at a 25 October press conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.  

The higher credit rating – a signal of confidence in the ability of the government to repay its debts – puts Serbia above others hoping to join the EU, including Turkey, Albania and Montenegro.  

Languishing at the bottom of the table is Ukraine, assessed as having a selective default on foreign currency, after the wartorn country restructured billions in sovereign debt. 

For Vučić, it’s a testimony to the resilience and hard work of all the citizens of Serbia. 

The upgrade is a “significant milestone” that “represents a turning point for the economic trajectory of our country”, Vučić said, according to Euronews Serbia.  

S&P, one of the three major credit rating agencies alongside Moody’s and Fitch, cites strong domestic demand, partly linked to investment in the Expo 2027 due to take place in Belgrade – but also points to a number of economic and political challenges. 

The EU is its biggest trading partner, but its bid to join the bloc will be “slow and challenging”, S&P said – given a squabble with its neighbour Kosovo, and a failure to align with key EU foreign policy decisions such as sanctions on Russia.

“Another risk stems from Serbia’s high dependence on Russian gas supplied via the Balkan Stream Pipeline,” S&P said – though that’s been mitigated by a new interconnector supplying an alternative, Azeri product