Scale of retaliation will dictate whether Iran and Israel are on a path to all-out war

An announcement by Israel that it is only striking military targets in Iran is key.

The world has been bracing for an Israeli retaliation against the Iranian regime ever since Iran’s military launched a barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel more than three weeks ago in response to Israeli attacks against its proxy forces in the region.

The Israeli government had vowed a “hard” response. There had been speculation that this could include the targeting of Iranian nuclear sites, energy infrastructure or even the country’s leadership.

Middle East latest: IDF confirms airstrikes on Tehran

However, if the attack is restricted to purely military targets, then – depending on the scale of the damage – it could provide an opportunity for a de-escalation in a tit-for-tat missile war that could ignite the region into full-blown military conflict.

Yet, if the damage is significant, Iran would likely make good on a pledge to retaliate once again.

Were that to happen, the size of any Iranian counter-strike would be an important indicator.

If Iran were to choose to reduce the number of missiles fired towards Israel that too would be sending a signal of a desire to de-escalate.

Should any future strike be even bigger than that one on 1 October then, again, the hostilities between Iran and Israel would be on a path to all-out war.