Presidential election is a dead heat though Trump leads Harris big on economy, says CNBC survey
With less than two weeks remaining before the election, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows the presidential contest remains a statistical dead heat both nationally and in the battleground states, unchanged from the August survey though there have been some notable movements among key groups.
Nationally, former President Donald Trump holds a 48%-46% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error and unchanged from August. In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within the 4% margin of error for that portion of the poll.
The survey was conducted from Oct. 15-19 and had a total sample of 1,000 voters nationwide. The nationwide sample included 186 voters from the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An additional 400 voters were interviewed in those states for a total sample of 586 from battleground states.
Both nationally and in the battlegrounds, economic issues remain the most important concern for voters. Trump holds commanding leads among voters who prioritize inflation, the economy and addressing the needs of the middle class. By a 42% to 24% margin, voters say they will be better off financially if Trump wins, with 29% saying their financial position wouldn’t change no matter who is elected. Voters who say inflation and the cost of living and the economy overall are the top issues favor Trump by 13 points. Inflation has remained the top issue throughout the election cycle.
“Even as the data show inflation has theoretically been slowing down, it has become more important in people’s minds over the course of the last three quarters, not less important,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey.
The survey also showed Trump has a 35-point advantage among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point edge on the issue of crime and safety.
Harris leads on a variety of second-tier issues, areas of high concern that rate below the economy. They include a 31-point Harris advantage among voters most concerned about abortion, 9 points on protecting democracy, 8 points on health care and 60 points on climate change.
Trump favorability improves
The question for Harris is if the combined support on those lesser issues will be enough to overcome her deficits on the big economic questions. The two candidates are statistically tied on who would be better to bring positive change to the nation.
Issues of character appear to be keeping the race close. Harris enjoys a 13-point edge when respondents were asked who has the better mental and physical health to be president. She leads Trump by 10 points on who is more honest and trustworthy. Yet both numbers show improvement for Trump when compared with a September NBC news poll.
And Trump has improved his favorability ratings as well. His -13-point net favorability rating (positive minus negative) from August has improved to -6 nationally. Views on Harris are only a bit less negative at -10, compared with -8 in August. (She had risen to +3 in September in the NBC poll, but now appears to have given up her post-convention gains.) Harris fares better in the battleground states with a -5 net favorability rating, equal to Trump’s.
CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey
The survey shows the American electorate cleaved along racial, gender, economic and educational lines, with some movement underneath the surface. The gender gap remains the most glaring split, but Trump’s net +17 support among men is larger than Vice President Harris’ +12 among women. Harris maintains a large 27-point lead among voters of color but lost 10 points compared with August. She has a 38-point lead among voters of color in the battleground states. Compared with August, Trump improved his numbers among less-educated and lower-income voters while Harris is doing better with middle class and wealthier voters.
CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey
“Trump’s advantage is because he’s winning men by more than he’s losing women,” said Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies, which served as the Republican pollster for the survey. “It’s a difference because of younger men, and the advantage among younger men is strong, and it’s just not as strong for Harris among younger women, and older women especially.”
Harris has an 8-point lead among women over 50 nationally, but is even with Trump with the group in the battleground states.
Inflation still an issue
While the official measured rate of inflation has fallen sharply, the CNBC survey shows Americans just aren’t feeling it. Three-quarters of the public believe prices are still rising with a plurality of 45% saying they are going up faster than they were before. Only 16% say prices have leveled off and just 6% see them declining; just 7% see their incomes going up faster than inflation, 27% say they are staying even with inflation and 63% say they are losing ground. At the same time, just 26% say the economy is excellent or good with 73% answering either fair or poor, a modest improvement from August.
Yet 37% of the public believe the economy will improve in the next year, the highest level in more than 3 years, an increase that typically occurs around election time and might be tied more to American’s views on the outcome of the election than their views on the economy.
The full survey results can be viewed here.
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