What’s inside Russia’s hybrid war playbook for Moldova?

While Moldovans who went to the polling stations on Sunday opted for their country’s EU future by the slimmest of margins, the Kremlin — which has long been vying to bring the eastern European country under its sphere of influence — has hardly been deterred.

If anything, Moldovan authorities have been adamant in their claims that Russia and pro-Russian forces have made multiple attempts to influence the results of the vote and consequently destabilise it.

The director of Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service reported last week that Moldovan authorities discovered that foreign instructors affiliated with the Wagner Group had trained a group of about 100 young, pro-Russian Moldovans at “guerilla camps” in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“The training program included, but was not limited to, tactics to challenge law enforcement, the use of weapons and objects to cause non-lethal injuries,” Alexandru Musteata said at a press conference last Thursday.

They were also trained in “making and using incendiary devices and improved explosive devices, and handling drones with special explosive or incendiary attachments,” he added.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War think tank also reported that, according to the Moldovan police, over 300 Moldovans learned about protest tactics at a training ground near Moscow and that Kremlin-friendly politician Ilan Shor’s Eurasia non-profit organisation funded the training. 

The Kremlin authorities may plan to ignite protests within the next ten days, before the second round of the presidential election on 3 November, according to ISW.

Christina Harward, a Russia researcher at the ISW, told Euronews that Russia intends to continue trying to destabilise Moldova’s society.

“We saw indicators that Russia was trying to launch protests in Moldova — and turn those protests violent. Moscow may still try to use its proxies to foment violent protests in Moldova in the coming weeks,” Harward said.

“The Kremlin will very likely use its proxies in Moldova over the next two weeks to try to influence the second round of voting. Moscow is also not going to accept the results of the referendum easily, and the Kremlin has already started to claim that voting was not free and fair”, she explained.

Kremlin officials have already claimed that Moldovan authorities falsified the results of the election and the referendum.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that Moldovan authorities used “totalitarian” methods during the election campaign and that the number of votes supporting the referendum “inexplicably” began to increase during the later stages of counting.

Zakharova also claimed that the West is trying to turn Moldova into a “Russophobic NATO appendage deprived of sovereignty.”

ISW’s Harward says that for Moscow, this is all par for the course. “We are also already seeing a lot of Russian mil bloggers — including some directly affiliated with the Kremlin — making similar allegations.”

“Overall, the results of the election and referendum are not going to deter Moscow from continuing to pursue its goal of regaining influence over Moldova. We can expect the Kremlin to keep trying to prevent Moldova’s EU accession in the coming years.”

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Why would Russia interfere in Moldova?

Moldova is widely seen in Moscow as part of Vladimir Putin’s definition of the “Russian World” or “Russkiy Mir” — the notion often used by Putin to justify Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.

Putin claims it includes the territories of Ancient Rus’ or Kyivan Rus, the former Russian Empire, and the ex-Soviet Union. 

An international consortium of media outlets, including The Kyiv Independent, released an investigation last year outlining the Kremlin’s plans to gain vast control over Moldova by 2030.

According to the leaked documents, Russia’s key goals were to ensure that Moldovan policymakers and society, in general, have a negative attitude toward NATO and that the country has a strong presence of pro-Russian influence groups in politics and the economy.

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Most of Russia’s short-term goals meant to be achieved by 2022 were derailed by Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which brought Moldova closer to the European Union.

Notably, the leaked document envisioned Transnistria as a breakaway region with Russian troops stationed there. 

Since 1992, Moscow has maintained about 1,500 troops in the pro-Russian breakaway area of Transnistria.  

Transnistria was a key element for Russia’s campaign, including its attempts to bride the voters, Harward explained.

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“Transnistria was key to Moscow’s recent efforts to bypass Western sanctions on Russian financial institutions and get Russian money into Moldova,” she explained.

Kremlin proxies in Moldova were bribing Moldovan voters with Russian money, but the Moldovans could only receive the cash through a complex series of bank transfers — including through banks in Transnistria.”

How can Russia destabilise Moldova now?

The ISW experts assess that Moldova in 2024 is similar to Ukraine between 2014 and February 2022, and the Kremlin has enacted elements of its hybrid war playbook in both states.

Therefore, Moldova’s presidential elections and the EU accession referendum are critically important for the Kremlin’s efforts to maintain its influence over the country. 

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Specifically, the ISW thinks that in the long term, Moscow may try to influence the parliamentary elections in the summer of next year to elect Russia-friendly politicians who can derail Moldova’s EU accession.

Moreover, Moscow can analyse and use the information it gathers from the October 2024 vote to better prepare its candidates.

Russia can also exploit its military and security ties to Transnistria to influence future negotiations or even to invade and occupy all of Moldova. 

The ISW states that the threat of an invasion is currently extremely low since Moscow would have to redeploy a significant number of forces, which is highly unlikely, with Russia’s primary focus being currently in Ukraine.

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“Military conflict is extremely unlikely in the near future. Russia does not have the forces or materiel it would need to militarily threaten Moldova right now. But these conditions can change in the future — it all depends on the battlefield situation in Ukraine,” Harward concluded.