Breaking down this year’s NL Rookie of the Year race

No official date is set, but MLB will probably announce its annual Rookie of the Year winners in November.

In the National League, four players have the best odds of winning, per BetMGM as of Thursday (Oct. 17): Two pitchers from the NL Central and two outfielders who helped their teams to the postseason.

Here are the top four in order, from least likely winner to most likely winner.

LHP Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs

His season: Imanaga, a 30-year-old southpaw who made his MLB debut on Opening Day after eight seasons in the Japanese Central League, put up numbers that, in most years, would be good enough to win Rookie of the Year. He went 15-3 and finished with a 2.91 ERA, 1.021 WHIP and 174/28 K/BB ratio across 173 1/3 innings (29 starts).

His outlook: Unfortunately for Imanaga, he didn’t end the season as the best rookie pitcher in his own division (more on that pitcher later). He should continue to be a formidable starter for several years, but odds are (+20000) he won’t add Rookie of the Year to his resume.

OF Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers

His season: Chourio has some advantages over Imanaga. For one, he’s a “traditional” rookie (20 years old). Also, unlike Imanaga’s Cubs, Chourio and the Brewers made it to the postseason, winning the NL Central by 10 games.

That probably contributes to Chourio’s odds being at +10000 to Imanaga’s +20000. Chourio played a big part in the team’s success, finishing the season with 21 homers, 79 RBI, and a .275 batting average in 528 at-bats while additionally joining the 20-20 club with 22 stolen bases. 

His outlook: Chourio’s season was more about promise than anything else. To win NL Rookie of the Year this season, a player must have stats that absolutely pop. 

CF Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres

His season: On a team filled with stars (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis and Xander Bogaerts), Merrill was one of the Padres’ best players. He played in 156-of-162 games, which is impressive for anybody, let alone a 21-year-old outfielder who had yet to experience the grind of an MLB season. Along with having top-notch endurance, Merrill produced (24 homers, 90 RBI and a .292 average in 554 at-bats). 

His outlook: For a while, Merrill was the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, but those odds have since dipped. At +165, Merrill still has a fighting chance in the betting community. Unfortunately for him, one of baseball’s biggest stars happens to be in his rookie class and playing in the same league.

RHP Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates

His season: The MLB leader in ERA, Atlanta Braves veteran ace Chris Sale, finished with a mark of 2.38. Skenes had a 1.96 ERA. The reason it doesn’t show up on the leaderboards is only due to the fact that the young phenom pitched in 133 innings (the league-leader minimum is one inning per team game, so 162). That’s a stat that should hurt Skenes in the NL Cy Young race — but not for Rookie of the Year.

In addition to having an ERA below 2.00, Skenes posted 170 strikeouts across his 133 frames, good for 11.5 K’s per nine innings. The league leader (again Sale) posted 11.4 K’s per nine innings.

If that somehow doesn’t put into perspective how good Skenes was in Year 1, maybe this will: Per Jayson Stark of The Athletic, the last rookie pitcher to have an ERA below 2.00 and at least 130 strikeouts through at least 22 starts was Hall of Famer Grover Cleveland Alexander in 1911.

His outlook: Skenes is the favorite for ROY, with his odds sitting at -250. The former LSU star had one of the best rookie seasons we’ve seen in a while and he should be rewarded. He already has been with Baseball America Rookie of the Year Honors and it would be surprising, if not shocking, if he doesn’t win the official honor.