Trump vs Harris: Who’s leading in the US presidential election polls?

On 5 November, US citizens will head to the polls to choose their next president in what has been a tense and dramatic race.

In late July, incumbent US President Joe Biden dropped his 2024 bid after weeks of pressure following a disastrous debate performance and increasing questions over his health.

Instead, Biden backed his vice president, setting the stage for a Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris matchup.

So who is in the lead, and who is predicted to win?

According to the latest national polling averages and historical polling data for Biden and Trump gathered by Euronews, the trends indicate a recent surge of support for Harris, with little over two months left for the two candidates to campaign and amp up the voters’ support, especially in key US states.

The charts illustrate how the polling margin has evolved throughout the candidates’ campaigns for Biden vs Trump and Harris vs Trump.

Since Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, Harris has managed to make up the lost ground for the Democrats.

By August, Harris started leading in the polls for the first time in the race, despite some analysts believing that an assassination attempt on the former president in mid-July meant his election was almost guaranteed.

Harris’ standings further improved after her supporters embraced Walz, who was initially seen as a surprise choice and a relative unknown.

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign has suffered from harsh criticism over its hardline conservative talking points and backers, including Project 2025, a far-right plan that some see as a direct threat against the government in Washington and its democratic checks and balances.

JD Vance has also been a target of disapproval following his less-than-impressive public appearances.

After independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr dropped out of the race and publicly endorsed Trump on Saturday, some pundits believed this would result in a surge of support for the Republican candidate — however, the polls are showing otherwise for now.

Yet the current numbers predict no clear winner, as the difference remains within the margin of error.

Our polling averages will be updated regularly.

Additional sources • Graphics by Kamuran Samar